By Shoshana Bryen
WASHINGTON, D.C. –Each revelation of a “secret” Iranian nuclear-related capability hides another secret. Western threats, and threats of threats, and threats of even bigger threats have had no impact. After the September revelation of Iran’s “secret” uranium enrichment facilities, JINSA suggested that the Western powers stop threatening and start supporting the Second Iranian Revolution-then and now being played out in the streets of Iran with increasing openness by tens of thousands of brave young people (and, some suggest, with lessening enthusiasm by the government’s military enforcers). Otherwise, we wrote, we risk facing “Iran’s next secret.”
Well, here it is:
The Times of London reported this weekend that confidential intelligence documents show that Iran is working on testing a key final component of a nuclear bomb.
The notes, from Iran’s most sensitive military nuclear project, describe a four-year plan to test a neutron initiator, the component of a nuclear bomb that triggers an explosion. Foreign intelligence agencies date them to early 2007, four years after Iran was thought to have suspended its weapons programme.
That would be the 2007 American National Intelligence Estimate that had “high confidence” that Tehran “halted” its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and was “less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging.” Wrong. The Times continued:
The technical document describes the use of a neutron source, uranium deuteride, which independent experts confirm has no possible civilian or military use other than in a nuclear weapon. Uranium deuteride is the material used in Pakistan’s bomb, from where Iran obtained its blueprint.
“Although Iran might claim that this work is for civil purposes, there is no civil application,” said David Albright, a physicist and president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, which has analysed hundreds of pages of documents related to the Iranian programme. “This is a very strong indicator of weapons work.”
Mark Fitzpatrick, senior fellow for non-proliferation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said: “The most shattering conclusion is that, if this was an effort that began in 2007, it could be a cuasus belli. If Iran is working on weapons, it means there is no diplomatic solution.”
Mr. Fitzpatrick is right-Iran is at war. Pursuing nuclear weapons and their triggers and the missiles to deliver them; arming and training terrorists across the Middle East and Africa; strengthening relations with Venezuela and Cuba; and naming a defense minister wanted by Interpol are all elements of Iran’s wars abroad. Beating, imprisoning and torturing demonstrators; controlling the flow of media and Internet information; and threatening Iranians abroad are all elements of Iran’s war at home.
Iran-watcher Ilan Berman noted that the Dutch parliament last month designated the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), as a terrorist group under Netherlands law and called for the IRGC to be put on the European Union’s terror list. And that the British government recently invoked counter-terrorism legislation to freeze business ties with Iran’s national shipping carrier, IRISL. Both, he said, are steps prelude to engaging in stiff economic sanctions against Iran.
Good. It’s about time.
But the Revolution is now. Michael Ledeen-perhaps the best watcher of Iranians-suggests immediate steps: President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton can support the Iranian people verbally and explicitly, condemning the regime for the killings, stoning, oppression, raping of women, etc. To circumvent the regime’s control of information, Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty can broadcast the news from all over Iran to all of Iran, letting protesters know they have support elsewhere in the country. And there should be a strike fund for the workers, so Iranians know that when they go into the streets, their families will be able to eat.
The time between emerging Iranian secrets is getting shorter-and more dangerous.
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Bryen is senior director of security policy of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs. Her column is sponsored by Waxie Sanitary Supply in memory of Morris Wax, longtime JINSA supporter and national board member.