By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM–On Tuesday we read that the Hamas regime in Gaza had reached a consensus with other rejectionist movements to cease firing into Israel. They were not giving up the struggle, but agreed that escalation at this time was not in their mutual interests.
Today (Wednesday) we read that six mortars were fired toward Israel, but none of them made it out of Gaza. There are conflicting reports of injuries.
Also today, one of my internet friends wrote that President Obama will join Europe in recognizing Palestine in the borders that it demands, with the threat of sanctions upon Israel if it does not go along.
So where are we?
First, the contrary indications coming out of Gaza are typical of Palestine. It is not an isolated incident, but an indication of an ostensible regime that does not function as such. Announcements mean little in the presence of factions that will go along, if at all, only for a moment of demonstrating unity.
Things in the West Bank things are hardly more orderly. Against the pledges of peaceful protest are those who stretch the concept to the throwing of stones at Israeli police and soldiers, shooting at cars or buses, and individuals waiting at bus stops. And the West Bank, as well as Arab communities in Israel, smolder from preachers and politicians who insist that the Jews are intent in occupying the sacred ground of Islam.
Will President Obama enter this thicket and bless the occupants with a recognition of a state that they cannot manage?
What I perceive in the White House is a man who is willing to push the limits, but not necessarily break them. Despite Israel supporters who faulted imperfections in the Cairo speech, I persist in seeing it as balanced. And for those who think that he is overreaching in pressing Netanyahu, I say again that many in the Israeli center agree that Netanyahu deserves pressure. If Obama overreached himself on demanding an end to construction in Jewish neighborhoods of Jerusalem, Netanyahu is overreaching just as far in the direction of incitement when he goes along with Jews moving into hostile Arab neighborhoods.
In the shouting back and forth of various ideologues, it is easy to lose the delicate point that Jews should have a right to live where they want in Jerusalem, but it is not wise for the government (or overseas donors) to help them upset a delicate and fluid quiet in this most delicate of places. The prime minister and others at the summit of Israeli government cannot prevent Jews from moving into Arab neighborhoods, but they can use their prestige to dissuade them. Arabs also have a historical memory that includes Jerusalem. There is no way to deny it, or to minimize its capacity to ignite an international crusade.
News from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq does not suggest a White House on top of things, waiting for an opportunity to do something dramatic for Palestine and against Israel.
It is difficult for me to believe that serious western governments will recognize Palestine in the boundaries wanted by Palestinians, even those who enjoy a label of being moderate.
And if they do, Israel has more than a few ways to make everyone sorry. The menu includes delays at the borders, using the next drive by shooting as a reason for reestablishing road blocks throughout Palestine and doing other nasty things, to encouraging overseas friends to redirect their political donations.
It is best for all concerned to encourage the continued cooperation between Israel and Palestine that has seen an improvement in Palestinian security forces, and development in the economy of the West Bank.
If western countries go beyond the reasonable and actually impose meaningful sanctions or invade in order to implement their intentions?
That would be a world so far removed from what I recognize as to declare my retirement.
I have no greater threat.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University