By Rabbi Dow Marmur
JERUSALEM — In the ghetto of old we used to receive every piece of news with the question, “Is it good for the Jews or is it bad for the Jews?” The modern version is, of course, “Is it good for Israel or is it bad for Israel?” The question is particularly significant in relation to the present unrest bordering on revolution in Egypt and the possible ripple effects this is likely to have in the Middle East as a whole.
Most Westerners are emotionally and politically in favor of the movement for democracy as it has emerged in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere. They tend to agree that Hosni Mubarak is an Egyptian pharaoh (even though this one knew Joseph) and that his counterparts in the region are despots. The possibility that Mubarak will be toppled is good news – in the abstract. But the specific question that’s being asked here is whether his successor(s), too, will be able to keep Sadat’s peace with Israel.
None of the experts I’ve read and heard this week seem to know the answer. Each puts forward arguments that could be interpreted positively or negatively but neither is persuasive. Such uncertainty gives legitimate cause for concern.
Being of the pessimistic persuasion I’ve been more impressed by those who say that, however democratic, westernized and modern/cyber-driven this revolution may be, it’s protagonists are too diverse to be able to sustain an alternative government. What the demonstrators have in common is that they’re all against the present regime, but when it comes to charting what they’re for, deep divisions are bound to emerge. Young people may respond enthusiastically to the calls on their mobile phones to turn up for demonstrations, they may even show tremendous courage in the face of violent coercion, but they’re less likely to form a viable realistic alternative.
Unfortunately, those best equipped to do it, according to experts, is the Muslim Brotherhood. This is bad news for all, not least for Israel. Barry Rubin of the Gloria Center in Herzliya has just listed popular and seemingly wholesome demonstrations in recent years in Lebanon, Gaza, Iran, etc. each of which ended not in more democracy but in more oppression and much more hatred of Israel.
The most promising alternative, according to some, is the possibility that the Egyptian armed forces will take over, at least for the time being. The fact that some generals have now been brought into the new, probably interim, government points in that direction. And Egypt’s military doesn’t want a war with Israel.
If Egypt isn’t enough on Israel’s plate, there’re the other new problems, e.g.,: (1) a de facto Hezbollah government in Lebanon that might join forces with Hamas in Gaza to strengthen Iran’s presence on Israel’s borders; (2) the blow to the standing of the chairman of the Palestinian Authority, following the recent revelations about his readiness to make concessions to Israel (“the Palestine papers,” or “TzipiLeaks”) that may result in extending the power of Hamas into the West Bank; (3) the threat of what’s happening in Tunisia and Egypt spreading to Jordan, Israel’s other Arab partner in peace.
In view of the low esteem in which Israel’s political leaders are held by the public, few pundits are willing to reassure us that the government will respond to the crisis in a timely, prudent and measured way. In the absence of certainty and clarity, to continue to worry seems to be the most realistic option. Alas!
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Rabbi Mamur is spiritual leader emeritus of Holy Blossom Temple in Toronto. He now divides his year between Canada and Israel.