LONDON — Events are moving rapidly in the Middle East. Nobody knows what turn of events are around the corner, nor in what direction the region is heading. I am one of those people who believe that “Western” style democracy is not possible in devoutly Muslim countries, but limited democracy may be possible in some of them.
Nevertheless, I do believe that the map of the Middle East is going to revert to an approximation of the map as existed 100 years ago. We are currently seeing the beginnings of that process, and it also explains the recent alliance between Turkey, Syria, and Persia (Iran).
One needs to remember that many of the countries in the area are completely artificial creations. They were formed after 1918 by Britain and France, as a means of carving up zones of influence. Iraq for example, is completely artificial , as indeed is Jordan. Many were merely provinces of the old Ottoman Empire, and not actually countries with any specific identity. The populations of many of these countries had no identity other than being part of a Muslim Caliphate.
There are really only four countries with long traditions and any meaningful historical basis, namely Persia (Iran), Turkey, Egypt, and Syria. My forecast is that we are going to end up with just the 4 above mentioned countries dominating the Middle East, plus whatever geographical area Israel is able to hang on to. Bahrain and the Gulf States and Eastern Saudi Arabia will be incorporated into Persia, either directly or as vassal states. Lebanon and possibly Jordan will be incorporated into Syria.
The other alternative for Jordan is that a new entity is created with Israel/Palestine/Jordan in some sort of federation. Indeed I increasingly am of the opinion that this is the only solution to the Israel/Palestine issue.
Turkey will control Kurdistan and areas in Central Asia with large Turkish populations, and try to dominate the Balkans. Saudi Arabia is traditionally ungovernable by outside powers anyway, and will probably exist as some sort of independent entity along with Yemen. Egypt will probably establish vassal states across North Africa.
The extraordinarily rapid decline of the “West” within our lifetime, is the reason this scenario is unfolding before our very eyes. The post First World War map was always unsustainable in historical terms, and the only surprise is that it lasted so long. I do believe that Iran, Turkey, and Syria are deliberately plotting this very scenario, and that is the reason for their close political and military cooperation at this time. It marks the end of Western domination of the area, and a structure more meaningful to the local inhabitants.
Its implication for Israel is hard to discern, but it isn’t going to make things any easier !
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Lloyd Levy is a freelance writer who divides his time between England and Israel. He may be contacted at lloyd.levy@sdjewishworld.com
1 thought on “Mideast future: Back to the past”
Marc
>>Indeed I increasingly am of the opinion that this is the only solution to the Israel/Palestine issue.
I think the citizens of Jordan and Israel may disagree.
The Arabs of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Jordan hate the Jews. This has been clear to see in both the banners they have held up for the benefit of the media, and the gang rape of Lara Logan when they berated her first for being a Jew (even though she isn’t).
The Islamists and other conservative Muslims regard the entire region as an Islamic wafq which can only be inhabited or Governed by Muslims. Hence, to them, Israel is a stain on the map that needs removing.
Prince Hassan of Jordan, claimed on a Sky News broadcast that the reason that democracy did not exist in the ME was because the Israel/Palestine issue was unresolved. He obviously had forgotten that there has never been a democratic country in the Middle East so Israel can’t be the issue.
Qaddaffi and other leaders have blamed the unrest on Western Imperialist and Zionist foreign powers.
As for Israel, amalgamation with Jordan would see the death knell for the Jewish state.
I agree that the main problem in the ME is the artificial boundaries that were simply drawn in the sand, cutting across tribal lines. If these states fragment and return to their tribal divisions then it won’t be democracy that will flourish just even more barbarism.
If the oil supply is threatened and there is a real chance it could be, we face the prospect of a world war as the West (and Russia) scramble to secure the fields.
>>Indeed I increasingly am of the opinion that this is the only solution to the Israel/Palestine issue.
I think the citizens of Jordan and Israel may disagree.
The Arabs of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Jordan hate the Jews. This has been clear to see in both the banners they have held up for the benefit of the media, and the gang rape of Lara Logan when they berated her first for being a Jew (even though she isn’t).
The Islamists and other conservative Muslims regard the entire region as an Islamic wafq which can only be inhabited or Governed by Muslims. Hence, to them, Israel is a stain on the map that needs removing.
Prince Hassan of Jordan, claimed on a Sky News broadcast that the reason that democracy did not exist in the ME was because the Israel/Palestine issue was unresolved. He obviously had forgotten that there has never been a democratic country in the Middle East so Israel can’t be the issue.
Qaddaffi and other leaders have blamed the unrest on Western Imperialist and Zionist foreign powers.
As for Israel, amalgamation with Jordan would see the death knell for the Jewish state.
I agree that the main problem in the ME is the artificial boundaries that were simply drawn in the sand, cutting across tribal lines. If these states fragment and return to their tribal divisions then it won’t be democracy that will flourish just even more barbarism.
If the oil supply is threatened and there is a real chance it could be, we face the prospect of a world war as the West (and Russia) scramble to secure the fields.