By Barry Rubin
HERZLIYA, Israel — Ali Gomaa, grand mufti of Egypt, writes in the New York Times:
“Egypt’s religious tradition is anchored in a moderate, tolerant view of Islam. We believe that Islamic law guarantees freedom of conscience and expression (within the bounds of common decency) and equal rights for women. And as head of Egypt’s agency of Islamic jurisprudence, I can assure you that the religious establishment is committed to the belief that government must be based on popular sovereignty.”
Well, without getting into things like official clerics endorsing suicide bombings, here’s what they don’t tell you: Gomaa is a Mubarak appointee. He is regarded as a “parrot” for the fallen regime. The Muslim Brotherhood is already demanding his resignation.
Either he will quit, be forced out, or eventually be replaced by someone whose view of Islam is closer to that of the Brotherhood than his. And they don’t believe Islamic law guarantees freedom of conscience and expression or equal rights for women.
And note that last phrase. He’s saying, after supporting the Mubarak dictatorship for decades, that he now is supporting democracy. But if government is based on popular sovereignty doesn’t that mean that the grand mufti should reflect prevailing views of Islam, which includes–according to reliable polls–overwhelming support for Koranic amputation and stoning punishments, killing anyone who converts to another religion, and other things that don’t seem to moderate and tolerant?
The entire religious establishment in Egypt has been organized to fight Islamism and the Muslim Brotherhood, a group that will probably control about one-third of the next parliament. And many Egyptians who don’t like the Brotherhood will also see Gomaa as a remnant of the dictatorship they want to eliminate.
All mosques must be government approved; mosque leaders are controlled by the government; religious education is controlled by the government; the head of the al-Azhar mosque-university and the grand mufti (Gomaa) are appointed by the government; clerics are allotted television time and media space by the government.
Guess what? There’s a new government and thus a “new” Islam.
Incidentally, the Brotherhood is now calling for a Saudi-style morality police with the powers of arrest. Is that the moderate, tolerant style Gomaa is advocating?
There are three points many are missing on the issue of Islam in Egypt:
1. Many who don’t like the Brotherhood and will vote for other candidates want stricter social controls. Will the revolution ultimately bring Egyptians more freedom or less freedom?
2. The Brotherhood will be a political power and other parties will make deals with it in which they give the Brotherhood what it wants on religious-related, social matters, and even foreign policy issues in exchange for Brotherhood support for their own priorities.
3. Beyond the Brotherhood there are (and will be more) radical violent Islamists who will carry out terrorism against uppity women, secularists, Christians, and Israeli or Western targets. Many of them were radicalized by being in the Brotherhood. With the Brotherhood legalized and growing there will be many more such people. The government will not crack down on their base-building and propaganda activities. How tough will it be on their terrorism?
Who Will Be Egypt’s Next President? Find Out Here Five Months Ahead of Time
There are twenty candidates running for Egypt’s presidency. Most are not serious candidates but can split the vote for various blocs. I think the winner will be the radical nationalist Amr Moussa, which isn’t great but is better than an Islamist regime.
Moussa, former Egyptian foreign minister and then secretary-general of the Arab League, has lots of advantages. He has more name recognition by far than any opponent. As a veteran of the old regime he has the votes of Mubarak supporters. As a radical nationalist, Moussa appeals to many Egyptians. He is not an Islamist in any way, which will appeal to the majority of Egyptians who don’t want the Muslim Brotherhood to rule. And he knows how to be a demagogue. .
The twenty candidates include two women, a Christian, two retired generals, and a couple of journalists. But there are no Islamists, or at least no Muslim Brotherhood representatives, among them. The Brotherhood won’t run a candidate and will have to decide who to vote for.
Now, here’s what I want to tell you. There is only one other candidate from the old establishment so that vote—perhaps one-quarter of the electorate?—will go to Moussa.
But, there are five leftists and six liberals who will split those two blocs to smithereens, if I can coin a phrase. The leftist bloc is relatively small but the following are all running:
Abdallah al-Ash’al, pan-Arab nationalist.
Hamadein Sabahi, Al-Karama (Dignity) party.
Hussein Abd al-Razeq, neo-Communist Al-Taggam’u Party.
Magdi Hussein, Al-‘Amal Party
Sameh ‘Ashour, Nasserist Party.
Incidentally, several of these people—notably al-Ash’al and Hussein, get along very nicely with the Brotherhood. How can Marxists, radical nationalists, and Islamists all work together? Well, that’s Egyptian politics.
Yet that’s not the key problem. Remember those young pro-democratic Facebook liberals who supposedly were going to rule Egypt? Well, they are all running against each other, splitting an already small voting bloc into a microscopic one. The six rivals are:
Mohamed ElBaradei, who is more popular and better-known by far with Western journalists than with Egyptians.
Hisham Al-Bastawisi, a judge who was one of the first to come out against Mubarak.
Ayman Nour, al-Ghad (Tomorrow) Party, who ran against Mubarak in the previous election and spent four years in prison.
Midhat Khafaji, deputy head of the al-Ghad party who is running against Nour, the party’s leader!
Buthaina Kamel, a tv host who is from the Kefaya movement, another early anti-Mubarak group.
Wissam Abd al-Gawwad, a teacher who founded the Egyptians for Change association and the al-Nahhar party.
While only the first four are more important, that’s still a pretty big field. Remember also that when it comes time to assemble lists for the parliamentary election such splits will be even more damaging.
Here are the two interesting questions:
–Who will the Brotherhood back with its twenty to thirty percent base? They were supporting ElBaradei (yes, Islamists backing a liberal because he isn’t so liberal) but have quarreled with him lately.
–Will Moussa organize his own party which, if successful, could come in first in the parliamentary election.
But one thing isn’t in much doubt: President Amr Moussa sounds likely.
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Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. GLORIA Center site: http://www.gloria-center.org He may be contacted at barry.rubin@sdjewishworld.com. Material for this column was excerpted from Rubin’s previous columns in the Jerusalem Post