LA JOLLA, California (Press Release)–“No incumbent has a particularly good debate,” observed Presidential campaign expert and UCSD Professor Sam Popkin. “However, you don’t turn an election around in one debate. Mitt Romney has the ball in his court. This is the time when people’s eyes were opened so he has to convince people he is worth a second look.”
Previewing the 2012 San Diego Jewish Book Fair, Popkin provided a lively, anecdote-studded and systematic review of the Obama-Romney contest. The standing room only crowd in the Astor Judaica Library of the Lawrence Family JCC last Thursday night heard him draw upon his vast experience and his current book, of “The Candidate: What It Takes to Win — and Hold — the White House.” Popkin is a Democrat and a political science professor at UC San Diego. Popkin has advised several Democratic presidential campaigns including those of Jimmy Carter and Al Gore.
Popkin said that all Presidential campaigns tend to follow common patterns.
“Obama’s ‘hope and change’ could have been Jerry Brown in 1992 or 1976 or Jimmy Carter or Gary Hart,” Popkin observed. “But after four years, the incumbent honeymoon is over and no matter how good you are, it becomes more of the same.”
Campaigns are assymetric warfare, not the mano-a-mano fight that most people suspect. Unlike chess, where all moves are visible and can be evaluated, presidential campaigns are more like poker.
“You don’t know what cards they are holding, there is the luck of the draw you can’t predict,” Popkin said, “and it’s a game with many unknown contingencies making it much harder than being a CEO.”
In fact, the mechanics of campaigns are enormously challenging. Both sides have their strategies and push them tirelessly to win. But having a strategy is not enough. Using former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson as an example, Popkin noted media would ask him about his opponent’s strategies. “Everybody’s got a strategy,” Tyson is quoted as saying, “until I punch them in the face.” So it is with presidential campaigns.
Popkin also notes that running a campaign is larger than managing a fast growing startup corporation. The candidate is running for more than President, he is running for First Family, presenting a set of values, and trying to communicate that to millions of Americans.
“It takes extraordinary audacity to say I am the best to manage the country,” Popkin warned. “Don’t believe you can just buy a campaign.”
In his experience, Popkin believes voters are not looking only for ample resumes. They are looking for who is ultimately best for the nation. Who would be good for you? Do they mean it? Can they do it?
“It’s not about who is right or wrong. It’s about who you think will best further your aims,” Popkin said.
According to Popkin, Obama the incumbent now needs to warn not to change horses in the middle of the stream. He needs to make the case to “look before you leap.” On the other hand, Romney needs to make his case that “Obama’s a failure and it just didn’t work out. Look what you can run away from and start all over.”
It remains to be seen if Romney can follow through on his debate performance. Campaigns get harder the closer you get to election day and rely more heavily on internal teamwork.
“Its like climbing Mount Everest,” Popkin concluded, “the higher you get, the less the oxygen, the harder it is to process information, and there is little and less time to do it on the spot.”
Popkin’s presentation was the first of the 18th Annual San Diego Jewish Book Fair, presented by the San Diego Center for Jewish Culture. The largest Jewish Book Fair in the U.S., it actually spans nine days, Nov. 3 – 11. The fair is open to the public with tickets available online at http://www.sdcjc.org/sdjbf/index.aspx
With about 40 authors personally presenting, this is an opportunity to experience and hear, first hand, about titles that are sure to excite your interests. They range from tense international spy intrigue to delicious ethnic cooking, from Elizabeth Taylor to troubles with dating, from seeing the promise of Israel to overcoming anxiety, from classical art to the ancient Bible, from a soldier’s WWII retrospective to an historical stunner about Civil War General US Grant, from recovering from 9/11 to the Book of Job and many, many more
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Preceding provided by the San Diego Center for Jewish Culture
Preceding provided by the San Diego Center for Jewish Culture