Israel’s election math

By Ira Sharkansky

JERUSALEM — The election is boring, but the formation of the next government may be more exciting.

 

Voters are shifting a bit between parties, mostly on account of two new parties in the center and a newly energized party on the right. What is boring is that the major blocs made up of parties to the right and left of center are similar to what they were in the outgoing Knesset.

 

The outgoing Knesset looked like this

 

Extreme right (outside the government)

Right of center to centrist (in the government)

 Center to left of center to extreme left (outside the government)

Recent polling has shown the blocs to the right and left of center more or less at those levels of strength

 

 

Parties that might be in the government

 

Parties likely to be outside and to the left of the government

 

What is likely to remain the same or similar

 

There is some moving around in the large realm from right of center to left of center. Kadima is disappearing and supplying its former votes throughout the range from Jewish Home on the right through The Movement, Labor, and There is a Future in the center or a bit to the left of center.

 

Likud has not done well since combining with Israel our Home. The two parties had 42 seats in the outgoing Knesset and currently have dropped to 34 seats in the lowest of the polls, and might continue to drop. However, Likud our Home remains twice the size of the next largest party, and remains the favorite for creating the next government. The losses of Likud our Home have gone mostly to Jewish Home, i.e., staying within the right of center bloc.

 

Assuming this line up continues through election day, January 22nd, and that Prime Minister Netanyahu will get the nod from President Peres, after Peres consults with the heads of all the parties and asks them who has the best chance of forming a government, the question is, what will Netanyahu do?

 

Here is the potential for some excitement, and even change in the nature of Israel’s government.

 

There is, to be sure, a boring alternative that produces more of the same, i.e., Likud our Home together with a larger Jewish Home along with SHAS and Torah Judaism. That will produce a majority of about 66 seats.

 

The alternative that is within the realm of the possible, or even likely, and can make things interesting, is for Netanyahu to add Yair Lapid’s There is a Future. That would produce a stronger majority of 75 or so seats. It would also put in his government two parties (Jewish Home as well as Lapid’s There is a Future) whose leaders have expressed themselves in favor of pressure against the Haredim to leave their academies and go into the army and then to work, and to pay something closer to the taxes imposed on Israelis generally.

 

There has long been tension and even animosity between the Orthodox and the ultra-Orthodox. Jewish Home’s new leader, Naftali Benet, is more outspoken than his predecessors in saying that the Heredim must do their share in the military and the economy.

 

Likud our Home, Jewish Home, and There is a Future without the ultra-Orthodox parties would not be enough to produce a majority of the Knesset. If Labor and The Movement would also join the government, Netanyahu could have a coalition with a large majority in the mid-70s without the Haredim. If one of the three center-left parties stayed out, Netanyahu could still create a government with about 67 seats, but without the ultra-Orthodox.

 

The combinations are intriguing, and the difficulties considerable. Involved in the negotiations will not only which parties will agree to enter the coalition, but in exchange for what. At issue will be the document that expresses the intentions of the government, but that will not be the hardest nut. Israeli politicians, like their counterparts elsewhere, know how to formulate ideas that sound great without imposing painful commitments. More difficult will be the assignment of ministries. Just to identify two prominent examples, it will be important to Labor who gets the Finance Ministry, and it will be important to The Movement who gets the Foreign Ministry. Currently Netanyahu is promising the Foreign Ministry to Lieberman, to be held open for some time while Lieberman deals with his judicial problem. It is hard to imagine that the free-enterprise Netanyahu will let the all important Finance Ministry go to the socialists of Labor or to anyone who would make them happy.