First of two articles
By Steve Kramer
The recent negotiations between Iran and the five UN Security Council permanent members + Germany were concluded successfully, according to the American government. “Obama said that the deal allows world powers to continue to apply ‘the toughest sanctions,’ but refrains from imposing new sanctions. The White House said that the U.S. will provide $6 billion to $7 billion in sanctions relief [annually]. Iran would agree to stop enriching uranium beyond a 5% level…”
Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately criticized the pact, calling it a “historic mistake.” Undoubtedly, Netanyahu is more concerned about Iran’s role as the worldwide leader in fomenting terror and chief bankroller of terrorist movements (Hezbollah, Hamas, Bashar Assad’s regime, and others) than is Obama, who is anxious to exit from the region. (Inexplicably, the Obama administration has not lost its ardor for trying to force an agreement between Israelis and Palestinians.)
Call me stupid, but this agreement is not a success. The toughest sanctions to date against Iran have been diluted by $6 billion, at the very least, while Iran will be able to continue enriching uranium. This “interim” agreement gives Iran six more months – and perhaps much longer – to reach their goal of attaining nuclear weapons. Secretary of State Kerry pronounced that there is no right to enrich uranium in the document. He may be technically correct, but so what? Before the accord’s ink had even dried, Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, trumpeted that Iran now has the right to enrich uranium.
Just a few days before the agreement was announced the Iranian supreme leader, Khamenei, reiterated: “I insist on stabilizing the rights of the Iranian nation, including the nuclear rights. I insist on not retreating one step from the rights of the Iranian nation. …The allegations that Iran poses a threat to the world are the words of enemies,” he said, referring to some countries, such as the “rabid dog of the region, namely the Zionist regime.” (The West’s negotiating team didn’t react to the slurs against Israel, which they discount and take for granted, as usual.)
Nevertheless, after the signing of the agreement, President Obama said: “For the first time in nearly a decade, we have halted the progress of the Iranian nuclear program, and key parts of the program will be rolled back.” Both leaders cannot be correct.
Iran has outmaneuvered the West, in the same way a wily bazaar merchant outmaneuvers a Western tourist. Iran has demanded recognition of its “right” to enrich uranium for civilian purposes, as some other signatories of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) have done. Rouhani stated: “No matter what interpretations are given, Iran’s right to enrichment has been recognized.” Kerry demurred, arguing that whether or not Iran has any rights at all will be left up to “future negotiations.” As in every international agreement, no matter how each i is dotted and each t is crossed, the signers reach their own conclusions.
Previous to the signing, Secretary Kerry said that more negotiating had been done in the last 30 days than in the previous 30-some years of negotiations. To what end? The West’s increasingly rigorous sanctions hurt Iran badly, forcing the Iranians to reopen negotiations. Now that tactic of escalating economic pressure has been reversed, many countries will go back to “business as usual.” Germany, Italy, Switzerland, China, Russia and many others have been doing business with Iran under the sanctions as they were; now that they have been eased there will be few inhibitions to increasing business with Iran.
While 30-some years of low level negotiations have been ongoing, the Iranians have progressed to the point of nuclear weapons preparation where breakout can be accomplished very rapidly and very surreptitiously. Talk, talk, talk, time out, plan the next sessions, talk, talk, talk, and so on. All the while, Iran has progressed.
Now the Iranians have gained a minimum of six months to attain their goal of becoming a nuclear armed country, or almost the same thing, a country poised to produce nuclear weapons. In fact, they may already have reached the status of a nuclear-ready nation. In my opinion, the ever-increasing sanctions and the decades-long warnings from Prime Minister Netanyahu have kept Iran from crossing Netanyahu’s famous “red line.” Now, Iran is viewed as a partner for peace while Israel is made out to be a warmongering outlier.
After decades of fomenting terror and deceitful diplomacy, the West has rewarded Iran with more time and less-stringent sanctions. I believe that the “historic” agreement (similar to Munich, 1939?) would have been even worse had Netanyahu adhered to Kerry’s admonitions to wait until the agreement was signed to criticize it – an nonsensical suggestion for a country worried by the existential threat coming from Iran.
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This article was previously published by the Jewish Times of South Jersey. Author Kramer’s works may also be read on the website, www.encounteringisrael.com