Second of Series
By Steve Kramer
ALFE MENASHE, Israel –There are wide cultural differences between the religious Arab world and the secular Western world, which most Western countries fail to comprehend. Surprisingly, the West refuses to recognize that the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is an Islamist organization which promotes an Islamic takeover throughout Arabia and then the world. The well-organized MB, championed by the West, won Egypt’s “free” election in 2012 because it was the only possible winner. (The military didn’t interfere in the election.)
The MB stayed in the background in Egypt, after being banned in 1952 as a terrorist organization. As a result of the “Arab Spring,” the MB declared its intention to seek Egypt’s leadership … it won. Mohamed Morsy, the new president, used highly autocratic methods and was eventually rejected by a huge majority of Egyptians. The result was a military takeover and a violent campaign against the MB. The West is dumbstruck, still failing to understand that Egypt and the Arab world are not equipped for democracy.
The ensuing collapse of Syria was a result of the old French habit of putting a minority, in this case the Alawites, at the head of the government to preserve French influence. (The Alawites, about a tenth of the population, are a breakaway Shiite sect mostly residing close to the Mediterranean coast, adjacent to Lebanon.) Without doubt, Syria is finished and won’t be reunited. The future will bring into being Sunni, Alawite, and Kurdish entities. (Shiites, Druze and Christians are all smaller minorities.)
The Kurds have benefited the most from the Arab upheaval and may attain their dream of a big state with a large population in former Syrian and Iraqi territory. There is already a strong Kurdish autonomous region in Iraq’s north, where most of Iraq’s oil wells are located.
The current Shiite dominance over the minority Sunnis in southern Iraq (nearly 2:1) was influential in sparking Syria’s rebellion against Alawite rule. Eventually there will be a Shiite state in southern Iraq, which is already closely allied with Shiite Iran. The Sunnis will dominate in the area between the Kurds and Shiites. The small minority of Christians are fleeing Iraq, as well as Syria and throughout the Middle East (except Israel).
Similar disruptions are rampant throughout the Middle East. Lebanon has 18 sects and cannot remain united. It has a history of chaos and more will ensue. The borders of Sudan have changed already, but this is just the beginning. Yemen is another example of disintegration. Saudi Arabia is also vulnerable, because its oil rich region is Shiite and the country’s rulers are Sunni. The upshot: there is no longstanding stability in the Middle East now, nor will there be in the future.
Despite chaos in the region, Israel’s strategic position has never been better. No major, conventional war by Arab countries will be attempted. However, non-conventional warfare is a constant problem. Nevertheless, Barnavi believes that the supposedly unsolvable situation with the Palestinians is solvable. The US and the UN may help to find a solution, as they have in other global hot spots, such as Kosovo.
There will be a solution to the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.
There is always a solution, although it may be unpalatable. The minimal peace we require is a cold one, a divorce. Israelis must realize that the situation isn’t static and can worsen. Other countries will follow America’s lead if the administration turns against Israel. A strong American president could forge a way, unlike President Clinton in 2000, who flinched instead of pressuring the parties to make an agreement.
Barnavi concluded that Israelis need to get the Palestinians off their backs and vice versa. He said, “Put yourself in their shoes. What would you accept?” Further, he believes Israelis have become stupid at negotiating. For example, former prime minister, Ehud Barak, dragged Arafat to Camp David without having a plan. Barak gave in to Palestinian demands; the negotiations failed anyway.
I thought that the professor’s points were very interesting. However, we differ over the consequences. I continue to believe that in this period of constant turmoil, bigger events will overshadow the Israel-Palestine stalemate. True, the situation will not be static, but as Barnavi noted, Israel is stronger than ever. The opposite is true of our enemies. (Iran may be the exception.)
During his talk, Barnavi mentioned Middle East pundit Robin Wright’s map, “How 5 countries could become 14,” showing how the map of the Middle East could soon be redrawn into many ethnic enclaves. For Israelis, it’s not just a matter of the 2-state or 1-state solution. There are many possible eventualities in this uncertain period of Arab ferment; some include the very unstable Hashemite-led Jordan. I believe that Israel will be best served by strong leadership that knows how to stand still amidst the whirlwind, waiting for the right opportunity. Giving in to pressure for “peace” could cost Israel irreparable harm with few guarantees of security.
If you doubt this, please remember that 104 murderous terrorists are being freed by Israel, at U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s insistence, something that no other country would even consider. In return, Kerry merely required of the Palestinians that they sit at the “peace” table for 9 months. (On January 9, the U.S. State Department spokesperson, Jan Psaki, said the 72 insurgents’ impending release by Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai “undermines Afghanistan’s court system and rule of law.”)
Let’s hope Israel can withstand pressure from the administration and particularly from Kerry, who in 2009 declared that Syria is leaning towards the West, and is prepared to resume peace negotiations with Israel and to embrace a 2000 Arab initiative offering peace in exchange for the Golan Heights.
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This article was previously published by the Jewish Times of South Jersey. Author Steven Kramer is based in Alfe Menashe, Israel, and his works may also be read on the website, www.encounteringisrael.com