Iran’s nuclear program, then and now

By Steve Kramer

ALFE MENASHE, Israel –In an article published in April 2009, I wrote the following [with added comments]:

“Iran couldn’t be more blatant in calling for Israel’s destruction. This it proclaims loud and clear, from many venues, including New York City, home of the United Nations. That Iran also wishes to destroy America (the Great Satan to Israel’s Little Satan) is typically overlooked, even [especially] by Americans. Iran proudly flies the anti-Semitic/Zionist, Holocaust-denying, anti-American flag; hosts dubious conferences; consorts with some of the world’s most unsavory characters, such as the Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez [and his successor]; and has ties to nuclear proliferator North Korea.

“Iran is arguably the world’s greatest supporter of terror, especially against Israel. The Hizbollah terror organization in Lebanon and the Hamas terror organization in Gaza, aim their weapons (scores of thousands of rockets between them) directly at Israel. Iran is the main financier and materiel supplier for both of these military forces, which have already fired thousands of rockets into Israel. Iran’s elite Republican Guard is active in Arab countries like Iraq, where Iran has contributed to the deaths of American and other Western troops, in Sudan, and in Africa’s largest country, Nigeria. Lately, Iran has gained influence in the African countries of Somalia and Eritrea, each located by crucial trading routes – the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden, respectively. Republican Guard agents are also found in South America, where terror attacks in Argentina carried out by Hezbollah in 1994 and 1996, on instructions from Iran, killed more than one hundred Jews and injured hundreds more.

“The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said that the Tehran regime has grossly underreported the extent of its uranium enrichment activities, along with a slew of other violations, including refusing access to IAEA inspectors to the heavy water reactor at Arak, which is ideally suited to producing plutonium for use in nuclear weapons. At the UN, America and Britain recently accused Iran of supplying arms to Syria in violation of a UN Security Council resolution banning arms transfer as part of the measures against Iranian nuclear activities. Violations, yes; punishments, no.

“Despite Iran’s obvious trail of anti-Western activity, the Europeans [and America] have been happy to spend years negotiating with them, untroubled by the fact that Iran plows ahead with its nuclear ambitions. Obviously, Iran’s deep-rooted hostility towards Israel and America has given the Europeans a false sense of security regarding Iran’s military prowess against Europe. This is not because Iran hides its growing arsenal of ballistic missiles, but in spite of it. Iran’s latest effort, putting a satellite into orbit, was accomplished by a missile capable of hitting all of the European capitals.

“The reason for Europe’s dilly-dallying with Iran is to prolong their mutually beneficial business relationships, though their mutual transactions are many times more significant to Iran than to any of its European partners. Russia and China also have a hand in prolonging the worse-than-useless negotiations, for reasons of realpolitik as well as trade. And we can’t ignore Iran’s clout as a huge oil and gas supplier, which seems to stupefy even some of the world’s strongest countries.

“The result has been that only weak sanctions [which were later strengthened] have been brought to bear on Iran by the UN and several Western powers, and even those are not enforced adequately. To sum up, the West, plus Russia and China, don’t take Iran seriously, despite its rapid acquisition of ballistic missiles, its rush to enrich uranium – a prerequisite for nuclear weapons – and its strategic position overlooking the Strait of Tiran, through which 40% of the world’s oil is transported.

“Now [inauguration – 1/2009] President Obama has declared, ‘We will extend a hand if you [Iran] are willing to unclench your fist,’ hoping for a reciprocal gesture of good will. Iran’s reply: America must stop accusing us of seeking to build nuclear weapons and supporting terrorism. When [Prague –  4/2009] Mr. Obama declared that, ‘All countries can access peaceful nuclear energy,’ Iran’s state-run daily newspaper ‘Resalat’ responded with a front page headline, ‘The United States capitulates to the nuclear goals of Iran.’”

“It’s no surprise that Iran gives a bellicose response to even conciliatory gestures, because Iran has learned that it (and other anti-Western states) can run roughshod over Western policies that are weak and lack resoluteness.”

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Five years have passed since I wrote the above comments. The Western negotiators (PC+1) are to be applauded for strengthening sanctions to the point that Iran was suffering serious economic damage. Nevertheless, Iran continued its progress towards achieving nuclear weapons.

Then, when it looked like the West actually might achieve its goal by economic sanctions, it grew fainthearted and capitulated to Iran. Instead of pressing its advantage, the West relented. Iran has been given more time to develop its program while the West dawdles along trying to reach a diplomatic solution.

As July, the end of the first period of the negotiations scheme, draws near, there is already talk of a six month extension. This despite the fact that important aspects of Iran’s nuclear program are not subject to international scrutiny, nor is Iran’s ballistic missile program inhibited in any way. The question, “For what purpose are ballistic missiles needed other than to deliver a WMD warhead,” is not raised.

Israel may have missed its chance to stop, or at least interrupt, Iran’s progress through military intervention based on “ironclad” promises from its best ally, America. Israel seems to be relying on America’s promise to prevent Iran from going nuclear. But even if Israel takes the Obama administration at its word, the chance for Iran to break out and suddenly possess nuclear weapons capability increases every day. It’s not so improbable, given the example of North Korea, which invented the strategy of stringing along naive negotiating partners.

Iran has not stepped back from its role as the world’s largest exporter of terror. Its deployment of the clandestine weapons ship “Klos-C,” to supply arms to terrorists in Gaza, is only one instance of Iran’s tactics to create havoc in the Middle East. The P5+1 didn’t even blink when Israel displayed the seized materiel at its Red Sea port of Eilat, after apprehending the contraband-filled vessel 1,000 miles from Israeli shores.

How much more havoc will Iran initiate in the region and throughout the world if dithering diplomats continue to give it all the time it needs to achieve its goal of possessing nuclear weapons capability?

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Steven Kramer is a freelance writer based in Alfe Menashe, Israel.  His works may also be read on the website, www.encounteringisrael.com  This article was previously published by the Jewish Times of South Jersey.
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