By Stephen Kramer
ALFE MENASHE, Israel — After the latest collapse of negotiations with the Palestinians, Ya’ir Lapid, Israel’s Minister of Finance and leader of the left of Center Yesh Atid (There is a Future) political party, said that the extreme Right prefers to wait for the Messiah instead of reaching a solution. Will it take the Messiah to bring peace between the two parties?
For Jews, the Messiah is not a supernatural being, but a man who will fulfill several conditions, including bringing peace to the world. In other words, Lapid is criticizing the Right for not expecting peace to come in the short term, but only (perhaps) in the indefinite future.
As far as the current situation goes, there are two competing solutions. The first is the 2-state solution, which envisions, “two states, side by side, living in peace.” Israel insists that “Jewish State” is an intrinsic designation for Israel.
While it seems that this 2-state concept has been worked on since before Israel’s independence in 1948, it actually didn’t become operative until after the Arabs’ humiliating loss in the Six Day War of 1967.
The 1947 United Nations Partition Plan envisioned a Jewish state and an Arab state in Palestine, despite the fact that at the Cairo Conference of 1921, three-quarters of Mandatory Palestine (previously established at the San Remo Conference of 1920) had already been split off by the British to form an Arab state: Transjordan. When the Armistice Lines of 1949 were drawn between Israel and the Arabs, Transjordan annexed Judea and Samaria (soon to be known popularly as the West Bank) and Egypt took over the Gaza Strip. There was no large movement for another independent state beyond the Green Line (1949 Armistice Lines) until after the war in 1967.
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The 2-state solution really got rolling with the Oslo Accord of 1993, although even that agreement didn’t officially call for a State of Palestine, as detailed in the rabidly anti-Zionist The Guardian” newspaper: “It was the first peace agreement between the two principal parties to the conflict: Israelis and Palestinians [PLO]… Basically, this was a modest experiment in Palestinian self-government… The text did not promise or even mention an independent Palestinian state at the end of the [5-year] transition period.”
More than 20 years later, the 2-state plan has not achieved much, if anything. To put it simply, the demands of each party do not intersect with any significant demands of the other. That is a recipe for failure which is ignored by the West, especially America.
Personally, I am opposed to any 2-state plan with the Palestinian Arabs because I know the Arabs’ goal is to usurp Israel, not to live in peace alongside of a Jewish state. This agenda is often proclaimed by the Arabs (in Arabic) and is available for anyone to see in the PLO Covenant (Ten Point Program).
Other very significant factors negating the 2-state plan is that Islam precludes Jewish (or Christian) sovereignty on so-called Arab land and that Gaza is separated from the Palestinian Authority and is ruled by the Hamas terrorist organization which violently opposes Israel. Besides these, there are many other impediments to placing a second country in the tiny space that was left after Transjordan was created by the British, an area roughly the size and shape of New Jersey.
That brings us to the 1-state solution, which is either identified as a bogeyman assuring Israel’s demise or as a way to assure Israel’s continued existence. By bogeyman, what is meant by the doomsayers is a warning: If Israel will not sign a peace agreement soon with the Palestinians, Israel’s continuing control over the Palestinians will result in the effective inclusion of “Palestine” into a bi-national state of Israel. Then, the burgeoning Arab population will soon outnumber the Jewish population, turning Israel into “Palestine,” unless (even worse) Israel becomes a true apartheid state and is ostracized by all.
In contrast to the above, there are at least two highly respected Israeli proponents of the 1-state solution as a positive outcome for Israel. Both Middle East experts, Martin Sherman and Carolyn Glick, reject the demographic figures upon which the bogeyman scenario is based. However, their much more positive figures regarding Jewish and Arab birthrates are themselves controversial. (Not in question is the fact that the ascending Jewish birthrate is about equal to the rapidly declining Arab birthrate.) Israel already has major problems with the existing Muslim Arab population of about 20%.
Glick (The Israeli Solution: A One-State Plan for Peace in the Middle East) believes that most Palestinians will acquiesce to Israel’s annexation of Judea and Samaria and will accept living in a Jewish state, whether as citizens or permanent residents. I find this conclusion very unrealistic, given the Ten Points mentioned above, among other reasons.
Sherman believes that the huge amount of money that would be spent fruitlessly to achieve “peace” (i.e. to transfer 100,000 Israelis from Judea and Samaria) could be put to a better use. Namely, to effectively voluntarily transfer many, willing Palestinian Arabs from their homes by buying their acquiescence. I find this conclusion very unrealistic, referring again to the Ten Points, among other reasons.
I believe some sort of deus ex machina (unexpected interference) may occur in the region, producing conditions preventing either the 1 or 2-state solutions. If so, the balance in the region could easily change radically, enabling possibilities not yet imagined. Whether the deus ex machina is biblical or man-made is irrelevant, but the result could be chaotic and revolutionary.
My speculations include:
*Lebanon deconstructs, creating a mishmash of sectarian states, including a Palestinian one;
*King Abdullah is overthrown by Jordan’s 3/4 majority of Palestinians, who declare Jordan is the Palestinian state;
*Same as above, but the Palestinian Authority is included in the new Palestine;
*Hamas is overthrown in Gaza by the Islamic Jihad, another Iranian proxy, further exacerbating Hamas’ rift with Fatah;
*Egypt occupies Gaza, usurps Palestinian rule;
*Iran acquires nuclear weapon, declares its own “Monroe Doctrine” and annexes the large Shia region of Iraq – Russia and US face off in reaction;
*Same as above but America withdraws from the region;
*Egypt exits the Sinai Peninsula and the vacuum is filled by Al-Qaeda affiliates or Iranian proxies;
*Syria explodes into three or four entities, Palestinian refugees are expelled and agitate for admittance to Palestinian Authority, civil strife breaks out among Palestinians, Hamas takes control;
*Turkey invades eastern Mediterranean territory sector of Syria, targets Assad regime;
*Hezbollah steps up terrorist actions in Turkey in response;
*Russia, reacting to loss of its Mediterranean port in Syria, invades Turkey and conquers Turkish territory on the Black Sea;
*NATO responds to Russian attack on Turkey, a NATO member, and war breaks out.
While many of the above scenarios seem fanciful, stranger things have happened. (Remember arch-enemies Stalin and Hitler signing the 1939 German-Soviet Nonaggression Pact?) The point is that the Middle East has always been prone to explode, as has been happening frequently since the so-called Arab Spring.
Trying to force an agreement between Israel and the Arabs is a fools’ game for the foreseeable future. Better to continue the unsatisfactory status quo than to try to force Israelis into a bad deal, which could easily blow up in our face. Think about this: Does any Israeli regret not trading the Golan Heights to Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad – for peace? Better to wait for the Messiah.
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Steven Kramer is a freelance writer based in Alfe Menashe, Israel. His works may also be read on the website, www.encounteringisrael.com … San Diego Jewish World seeks sponsorships to be placed, as this notice is, just below articles that appear on our site. To inquire, call editor Donald H. Harrison at (619) 265-0808 or contact him via donald.harrison@sdjewishworld.com