By Lloyd Levy
LONDON –Developments in the Middle East at this time, are so far reaching and rapid, that it is difficult to comprehend or estimate the final outcome. Although the threat to Israel from the new Islamic Caliphate is immense, the rise of a new State of Kurdistan, or even a new Druze State, could be very positive.
There is only one coherent political entity in the Arab World, and that is Egypt, which of course has a history based on the Nile Valley, going back thousands of years. However, all the other modern Arab States are merely arbitrary lines drawn on the map by British Colonial Administrators, with tame Arab Monarchs “parachuted”( not literally one hopes !) in to rule them. This happened almost exactly 100 years ago, and indeed it is surprising that the artificial borders have lasted so long.
So essentially, Iraq has now broken up into its 3 constituent parts, namely Kurdish, Sunni, and Shia areas. The Sunni radicals are attempting to re-create the ancient Muslim Caliphate in an area stretching from Iraq, through Syria, through North Africa, and into Central Africa itself ( the schoolgirl kidnappers Boca Haram in Nigeria being part of this movement). The Shia area will be absorbed into Iran.
From an Israeli perspective the threat is enormous, especially if Jordan falls to the rebels, bearing in mind that King Abdullah is not terribly popular, and half the population are Palestinians anyway. However, the situation does have some significant positive possibilities. The developments have lead to a de facto strategic alliance between Israel and Egypt. Also, the possible rise of a Kurdish State, with close ties to Israel, could give Israel a significant non Arab ally in the region. It was a great disgrace that the Kurds were not given their own state 100 years ago, when the map was being redrawn.
The turmoil has also cleared the air regarding the interminable “peace” talks between Israelis and Palestinians. There is now no way that Israel is going to give up control of the Jordan Valley, because it is the only geographical barrier stopping the jihadists from overrunning Israel. These people are unimaginably vicious, and don’t hesitate to torture, behead, massacre, their fellow countrymen, so what do you think they would do to the Jews if they could get their hands on them?
In a similar vein, I cannot see Israel doing any more prisoner swaps for hostages. The kidnapping of the three yeshiva students has shown the futility of releasing hundreds if not thousands of terrorists in exchange for Gilad Shalit. These terrorists merely return to the fray and kill and kidnap even more. It is the same with the Guantanamo Bay inmates, many of whom have been released merely to lead the blood lust sweeping the region.
The Middle East troubles are having serious repercussions in Britain also. There are estimated to be 300 to 400 British Muslims fighting for the jihadists at this time, but maybe thousands that have been out there and returned to Britain over the last few years. There are millions of Muslims in Britain, and even if just 10% of them support the jihadists, we are talking about hundreds of thousands of radicals in our midst. People are very worried, and are going to hold the British political class to account for their encouragement of this situation over 20 years or so. It is incomprehensible how stupid our past governments have been.
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Lloyd Levy is a businessman who divides his time between London, England and Eilat, Israel. He may be contacted via lloyd.levy@sdjewishworld.com