By Steve Kramer
ALFE MENASHE, Israel — The Obama administration and its negotiating partners will soon close a deal with Iran on the June 30 deadline, permitting Iran’s nuclear weapons program to proceed at full speed. But wait! The deadline will be extended, just as has been done many times during the interminable negotiations with Iran. We now know the reason that the Iranian negotiators always have smiles plastered across their faces: the West still falls for the same old tricks, allowing Iran to merrily proceed to its goal to be the leading Muslim power in the region (and later beyond), as negotiations drone on.
It’s safe to say that what’s driving the West to sign on the dotted line with the mullahs is the zeal for the deal, a phrase taken from California congressman Ed Royce. Another incisive comment is from Middle East expert Martin Sherman: there is “no causal mechanism other than fervent hope” that the negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran will stop Iran’s drive to obtain nuclear weapons. Plainly, the West just wants to get the negotiations behind them, no matter how disastrous the results are for the region, Israel, and other Western countries. Global corporations are already straining at the leash to rush into deals with the Iranians.
The president’s primary justification for this capitulation to Iran is that any deal will be better than no deal, despite the many protestations that, “No deal is better than a bad deal.” The administration claims that minus a deal, Iran can “breakout” to nuclear weapons in just 2-3 months, while a deal will ensure a breakout period of 12 months (which is supposed to be satisfactory?).
Professor Alan Kuperman, coordinator of the Nuclear Proliferation Prevention Project, disputes that finding, claiming that caving in to Iran’s demands will, at best, result in only a 1-month improvement, not 10 months. With the deal, the mullahs solidify their power, gain billions of dollars via a “sign-up” bonus plus a cessation of sanctions, and expand their nuclear program to intimidate its neighbors.
(The New York Times-6/23)
But wait! That’s not all – there are at least five “secret” annexes that are being added to the agreement. There will be nothing left of the “red lines” that have been constantly proclaimed by the P5+1 and by President Obama. For example, does anyone on the planet believe that America will exercise a military option? Iran certainly doesn’t.
Iran continues to get its way negotiating with the West. Numerous demands by the IAEA and the United Nations are forgotten; Iran expands its powers in a Shiite Crescent from the Persian Gulf to the western Mediterranean – as well as in South America and elsewhere; proxy armies threaten Israel from Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Gaza/Sinai (Hamas, Islamic Jihad); Iran’s global network of terror is declared irrelevant to the negotiations; etc.
The West consistently disbelieves the intentions of Iran, despite Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s constant repetition of them. Perhaps France and the UK may listen a bit, but depending on those two countries to defy President Obama and kill the deal is a very faint hope. But, it may turn out that the Grand Ayatollah Khomeini saves the day for us all.
Khomeini is so defiant and outrageous that even the ineffectual Western negotiators may see the light. How much longer can the West ignore Khomeini’s fiats, such as: all economic sanctions must be lifted in advance, on the day any final agreement is signed; military sites would be strictly off limits to foreign inspectors; and Iran will have 190,000 centrifuges, not today’s 19,000?
Perhaps the Iranians really want the negotiations to continue indefinitely until Iran reaches its goal. Israelis have heard this story before. The Palestinians play at negotiating, but don’t really desire peace; they desire Israel. Their leaders make absurd demands which should logically end the peace process, but the West (especially the Europeans) won’t take no for an answer. Instead, the Palestinians are rewarded while Israel is chastised. Perhaps Khomeini is frustrated in his attempts to end the negotiations. Is there nothing he can demand or refuse that the West won’t swallow?
Secretary Kerry provided a perfect example recently: “U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday suggested that Washington would not insist that Iran answer unresolved questions about its past nuclear activities because the United States already knows exactly what Tehran has done.” (Reuters.com 6/16)
Despite my fervent hopes that someone among the Western negotiators will grow a backbone, it may not happen. In that case, Israel will again have to take charge of its fate, irrespective of other nations who appear to be blind to Iran’s growing power. In the past, Israel destroyed the nascent nuclear weapons capabilities of Saddam Hussein and Bashar al-Assad. There’s no way to know how much worse the situation in the Middle East might have been if Israel had remained passive while those enemies of the West prepared the ultimate weapons of mass destruction.
Today, there’s still a faint possibility that a terrible deal with Iran will not be signed. Just don’t count on it.
*
Kramer is a freelance writer based in Alfe Menashe, Israel. you may comment to him at steve.kramer@sdjewishworld.com, or post your comment on this website provided that the comment is civil and that you identify yourself by full name as well as by the city and state of your residence.