By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — The New Middle East isn’t the spread of equality, women’s rights, and democracy dreamed and promoted by Barack Obama, Thomas Friedman, and other politically correct westerners.
It is, rather, a confused jumble of deadly conflicts among Muslims, shifting postures toward Israel, and a lack of symmetry between what is said and what is done with respect to the Jewish State and Palestine.
What had been a multi-cultural region is now overwhelmingly Muslim,. The vast majority of its Jews are in Israel, with communities remaining only in Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey, Greece, and Iran. Historic Christian communities–except for Greece and Cyprus, and minorities in Egypt and Lebanon–are a fraction of what they had been, with Christians continuing to leave Muslim countries for more secure places in the west.
Economically, politically, and militarily, Israel is the elephant in the region’s living room
Israel’s Gross Domestic Product per capita is about two and one times greater than the average of all other countries in the region that extends from Morocco to the Arabian peninsula, and includes the Christian countries of Greece and Cyprus.. Israel’s GDP/c is 20 percent larger than that of Kuwait, 46 percent larger than that of Bahrain, and 50 percent larger than that of Saudi Arabia.
Only the resource-rich and population sparse Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are ahead of Israel on GDP/c. Iraq and Syria are among those on the list, but neither may presently qualify as a country.
Israel’s economic stability, democracy, political and military acumen have brought it greater security than any of the region’s Muslim’s countries.
What’s new about the Middle East, since the onset of the Obama Administration, and at least partly on account of Obama’s actions and inactions, is Israel’s capacity to position itself between a number of the tensions affecting its neighbors.
It is cooperating with Egypt in combating Islamic extremists in the Sinai, who threaten both countries. It has repaired a rift with Turkey, in this case with the nudging of both countries by the United States. Israel has advised Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus that Israel’s improved relations with Turkey will not harm its relations with them.
Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus have long been at odds. Turkey and Egypt have competed over being ostensible leaders of the Middle East, and have reached a higher level of tension with the move of Turkey toward greater religiosity, the ouster of Egypt’s Islamic government, and their’ contrasting postures with respect to Gaza.
Palestine has been a prominent loser in the New Middle East.
It remains the symbolic darling of the Muslim governments, but the incidence of lip service over practical steps has increased with other countries’ respect for Israel’s contributions to regional security, including their own, and the Palestinians’ inability to take advantage of several opportunities to ratchet down from their non-negotiable demands with respect to Israel.
Readers of the US and European press might not recognize any diminution of Palestine’s status. It is not apparent in the expressions of the White House, State Department, various bodies and individuals associated with the European Union, or the United Nations. The issue is not something that can be defined with absolute clarity, but appears in the lack of pressure by Americans or Europeans.
It’s been a while since Barack Obama or John Kerry have expressed the urgency of an accord. The French proposal to convene an international conference atrophied short of accomplishment.
The recent visit of Egypt’s Foreign Minister to Israel, along with his routine expression about a Palestinian state, with its capital in Jerusalem, and its boundaries based upon 1967, came in the same week as Egyptian President al-Sisi’s call for a Cairo conference between himself, Benyamin Netanyahu, and Mahmoud Abbas.
Israeli officials, up to and including Benyamin Netanyahu, were warm in accepting Egypt’s involvement, but Netanyahu reiterated his willingness to negotiate directly with Palestinians, without pre-conditions.
Some of this may be Egyptian and Israeli thumbs being stuck in the eyes of the US White House and State Department, i.e., speaking about a Middle East-only forum with respect to a political deal.
Abbas has announced that his conditions for meeting with Netanyahu are a freeze in building within the settlements, and a release of Palestinian prisoners.
We’ve been there and done that, without any response by way of counter movement from the Palestinians.
In such a context, most likely assumed by al-Sisi, Egyptian expressions about Palestinians appear to be lip service, and not likely to affect security cooperation with Israel..
America’s Iranian friends are on the shit list of virtually all the Middle Eastern governments, except for Syria and its Hezbollah allies.
There is a lot we don’t know about Israeli-Russian ties, how they fit along with Russian links with Iran, how they impact on the status of Assad, and how much they annoy Obama and Kerry.
It’s also difficult to read the present and future postures of the United States.
Hillary Clinton’s forces have worked against leftists trying to tilt the Democratic Party platform toward the Palestinians, while Trump forces have worked to strengthen their platform toward Israel and weaken it toward the Palestinians.
The US military is acting more aggressively against the Islamic State than suggested by the President’s comments.
Jews of Israel may have to live with a second class status, not welcome in the diplomatic living room, and condemned for alleged offenses to the Palestinian people. Yet the country is respected for the quality of its government and society, how it acts, and what it can do.
This is a microcosm of Jewish history, now better than ever, but with no guarantees. We must remain vigilant of others, and our own extremists, also as in times past.
Recent events suggest that Europe and the US have to worry at least as much about Israel about Islamic attacks on their soil.
Those who read things differently may tell me what I’ve missed.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com. Comments intended for publication in the space below MUST be accompanied by the letter writer’s first and last name and by his/ her city and state of residence (city and country for those outside the United States.)