By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — What to do? Not much of anything. This is a time for watching and waiting.
The biggest crap shoot is in the United States. Currently it seems wisest to bet the nickel on Hillary, and a dime–or even a quarter–that the stay-at-homes will have more votes than any candidate.
If the bet on Hillary wins, we can assume more of the same from the government she will be leading. If Donald wins, all bets are off. Picking his direction defies the odds-makers.
There is a lot going on elsewhere. The Israeli government and its security services should continue investing in intelligence, and snaring the bad guys and girls they identify, but probably not gearing up to anything more active.
The arenas attracting the most attention are busy internally, with the nasties killing one another.
The Islamic State and its wannabees recruit worldwide, and direct the faithful to wreck havoc where they can.
In these cases, the reliance on individual actions, linked only vicariously, means that the best defense for individuals is not to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. In other words, luck.
European governments are talking about closer monitoring of mosques. The Americans haven’t gotten their President to express the I(slam) word in connection with the violence, so Americans may have to be more lucky than the rest of us.
Even monitoring mosques may have limited payoff, given the importance of Internet sites in spreading the evil.
Israel may be the most pro-active in dealing with Islamic violence, and coping with the criticism received as a result. Along with the criticism, it also hosts visiting politicians and security professionals, who want to know how Israel does it.
Israeli as well as European authorities have confined local Muslims known to be on their way to join Islamic State forces elsewhere, or who have returned home after serving.
Here the idea of a Palestinian State seems to be dead, while it is still among the favorite mantras of diplomats and politicians in the US, France, and a few other places.
Realities are murky. The leadership of the Palestinian National Authority has little support in the West Bank, and less in Gaza. Opinion polls have shown support both for violence and coexistence. Living standards and political quality are not clearly below those of the Third World generally. Hatred and distrust of Israelis is high, but not unanimous. Likewise, Israeli distrust of Palestinians is high, but not unanimous. It’s easy to find individuals of both communities who regret the conflict, see the way to coexistence, but do not know how to bring it about in the context of many Palestinians and a smaller incidence of Israelis who reject moderation.
It is possible to find those who want to pre-empt, clean out the West Bank and/or Gaza, and end once and for all the Iranian nuclear threat.
1967 was an ideal of preemption, unless you take the view that it led to Israel’s self-destructive settlements, or the view that it produced the 1973 war with its high casualties,
It’s easier to attack than to deal with the unintended consequences.
Russia is learning, if it didn’t already know, that military might does not provide an easy solution.
Syria is most in the news, with its muddle of success and loss, both for the Assad-Russian-Iranian-Hezbollah forces, and the large number of militias fighting the regime and one another, some of them supported by Saudi Arabia, the United States, and European governments. The Turks are also involved, but it’s not clear on whose side.
Danish F-16s have joined the bombing of targets in the Middle East.
There are several clusters of outside powers, which we can call A, B, and C cooperating on one level, and fighting on another level, via militias they are supporting. You can insert the US and its European allies, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and maybe Israel in the slots labeled A, B, or C.
A small country like Israel has some advantage in maneuverability. Moreover, it’s been enhanced with conflict among Muslims. Israel deals with the US, European powers, Russia, China, India, Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and who knows who else? Israeli officials say time and again that the US is its principal ally and basis of support, but there are others, as well.
There are things we can guess about, with occasional and partial reports available in the media.
Both the Russians and the Americans are avoiding Afghan/Vietnam level casualties by concentrating on air bombardments. The Russians have gotten to a couple of thousand dead, with no end in sight. Russia’s Ukraine front is also heating up, with reports of Ukraine nationalist “terrorists,” and a reinforcement of Russian troops in the Crimea.
Russian attacks in Syria appear to produce more civilian casualties than American attacks, but the difference may only be in more expressive American apologies for its collateral damage.
Israel’s recent headlines have dealt more with the Olympics (two bronze medals for judo), and several cases of tainted food than anything more violent. The companies found at fault–allowing tainted products to enter the markets and not quick in admitting the need to withdraw them–are some of the most prominent, with a local subsidiary of the international giant Unilever among them.
Competing with the Olympics and tainted food is a police investigation into the Prime Minister. Reports are that it involves his use of funds collected by the American branch of Likud. One can doubt that many Americans are aware that such an organization exists. And those of us who follow allegations about campaign finance violations are hard pressed to express more than a yawn. We’re yet to hear that police inquiries into Netanyahu approach the level of taking bribes in exchange for allowing anything in the league of large scale and ugly property developments, of the kind that ended the career of Ehud Olmert.
The mini-Intifada that began in September, and was marked by individual knife attacks, using cars as weapons against people at bus stops, and some drive-by shootings has pretty much disappeared. But there are always signs of fervent Palestinians. Last week a young Palestinian man used a screwdriver to stab a young ultra-Orthodox Jew in the area of the Mount of Olives. Israel cooperates with Palestinian security forces against opponents of the Palestinian political establishment inclined to violence against the wrong kind of Palestinians as well as Jews. We often hear gun shots while having our evening meal on the balcony, or later when on the way to sleep.
Relaxation is relative. You have to know where and when to do it, recognizing that no place is completely safe.
That goes for small towns in America and Europe as well as anywhere in Israel.
Yet it could be a lot worse.
It is, not too far from here.
One can pity the mass of Iraqis, Syrians, Yemenites, Libyans, and others. Insofar as many of them have been prone to chant death to the Jews, our pity can compete with our concern for keeping out of their morass.
For Jews it has been worse. Our religious friends fasted yesterday in commemoration of the 9th of Av.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com. Comments intended for publication in the space below MUST be accompanied by the letter writer’s first and last name and by his/ her city and state of residence (city and country for those outside the United States.)