By Steve Kramer
KFAR SAVA, Israel — It’s done. U.S. President Donald Trump announced (5/8/18) that the US is withdrawing from the JCPOA (aka Iran deal) and that drastic sanctions on Iran will be reimposed.
In the run up to the inauguration of the deal in 2015, then President Barack Obama promised that the Iran deal would quickly be “snapped back,” if it wasn’t working. But those were empty words: the then-president made the bar so low for Iran’s compliance, that it enabled Iran to greatly enlarge its terrorism footprint while building its nuclear weapons/delivery systems programs – all perfectly legal according to the deal. Obama also promised that, “No deal is better than a bad deal,” which was also a fiction.
No wonder Israel’s prime minister and numerous critics (including some Democrats) condemned the deal in the harshest terms.
Of course, the Europeans saw $ signs aplenty in the offing and loved the deal. Ditto for Russia, which probably was surprised that the West would fall so completely for Iranian smiles and promises. The Russians also loved the fact that the West was wittingly or unwittingly reducing its influence in the Middle East.
But then-candidate Trump saw right through the Iranian charm offensive and condemned the deal vociferously. Now, Trump is actually doing something about it, in the same way that he is keeping his promise to move America’s embassy to Israel’s capital in Jerusalem on May 15.
“The decision that the president signed today puts sanctions back in place that existed at the time of the deal, puts them in place immediately,” newly appointed National Security Advisor John Bolton said. “No new contracts are permitted.”
In a press conference the same day, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said the EU was “determined to preserve” the pact.
Mogherini, who was one of the architects of the deal, said the JCPOA was “delivering on its goals which guarantees that Iran will never develop nuclear weapons.” [Not]
“We fully trust the work, competence, and autonomy of the International Atomic Energy Agency that has published 10 reports certifying that Iran has fully complied with its commitments.” [Inspections on military bases are effectively prohibited]
Critics have warned that ending the sanction waivers would unravel the carefully constructed deal, plunge Iran’s already struggling economy into crisis, spur a Middle East arms race, and expose the biggest transatlantic rift since the Iraq War. [The proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region is guaranteed if Iran goes nuclear, which the deal ALLOWS in 7-10 years.]
(The above quotes are from timesofisrael.com 5/9/18)
The dust has just begun to settle on this new reality. Some say that Trump’s decision is bad because no other country, North Korea in particular, will rely on the United States keeping its word. This is laughable. North Korea, as well as Iran, epitomize countries whose word means nothing, based on the many times they have reneged on diplomatic agreements. In this case, the JCPOA is not even a treaty, due to President Obama’s fear that it would not attain mandatory Senate approval.
Not only that: “President Obama didn’t require Iranian leaders to sign the nuclear deal that his team negotiated with the regime, and the deal is not ‘legally binding,’ his administration acknowledged in a letter to [current Secretary of State] Representative Mike Pompeo (R., Kan.) obtained by National Review.
‘The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is not a treaty or an executive agreement, and is not a signed document,’ wrote Julia Frifield, the State Department assistant secretary for legislative affairs, in the November 19, 2015 letter.” (nationalreview.com)
Others fear that war will result from Iran’s quick dash to bring to fruition its proven nuclear weapons research, which Prime Minister Netanyahu dramatically presented to the world several days ago. The deal’s proponents were hoping that such Iranian action would have been postponed for the seven additional years allowed by the JCPOA. If Iran attempts a rush to a nuclear bomb, it’s better to deal with an enemy before it has nuclear weapons, instead of after, as is the case with North Korea.
People, especially influential politicians, who close their eyes to what the Islamic Republic of Iran represents, had better get up to speed. Iran is currently the tip of the spear aimed directly at Western civilization. No honeyed words or ingratiating smiles can hide the fact that, for Iran, America is the Big Satan, Israel is the Little Satan-both to be destroyed- and all lands that Muslims once ruled must again come under Muslim hegemony. Of course, this latest Caliphate (there were four previous caliphates, the last being the Ottoman Caliphate, 1517-1917) will be headed by the Iranians and all sects of Islam other than their Shia variety will be eliminated or converted.
If you think this is some cock-eyed right wing theory, you haven’t been reading translations of what the ayatollahs say in their own language every day, especially on Fridays at the mosques. See the Middle East Media Research Institute site (MEMRI.org).
What President Trump and his security team are probably aiming at is regime change in Iran, to topple this government before it gets further along in its campaign to reach hegemony in the Middle East and beyond. (Iran has already carved a swath from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea).
Many citizens of Iran also want to see their oppressive government toppled. For too long these intelligent, creative people have been stifled by authoritarian, arch-conservative, abusive leaders who want to rule over their lives in every way, squelching their economic well-being in order to support the Islamist campaign for a world Caliphate.
Many Iranians will be cheering President Trump on. What Americans feel perhaps will be made known in the elections next November. As far as nearly all Israelis are concerned, the emasculation of the mullahs opens the way to a much different, hopefully much safer, Middle East.
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Kramer is a freelance writer based in Kfar Sava, Israel. He may be contacted via steve.kramer@sdjewishworld.com