Watching politicians in U.S. and Israel

By Ira Sharkansky

JERUSALEM — One of our big mysteries is Donald Trump.

Latest news is a report by his former lawyer that Trump ordered payment of silence money to two babes during the 2016 campaign. And assertions that he fathered a child with a cleaning women at his New York residence.

For us, hints that Palestinians would get something from a plan that would be too good to reject. By Trump’s assertion, the benefit would be better than what Israel received by his recognition of Jerusalem as its national capital.

That may have been the President flying beyond what was agreed in the White House. John Bolton has said that there was no quid pro quo attached to the concession of Jerusalem.

More official is an announcement that US aid to Palestine will be reduced by $200 million. Israelis are worrying as to how that might affect Gazans’ inclinations to reach something of an accord.

There are also reports that the man who managed his finances has agreed to share information with the police.

Impeachable?

Only if accepted by a majority in the House of Representatives, then agreed to by 2/3 of the Senate.

Doesn’t he realize what Gazan obstreperousness will do to any suggestion about a Trump deal between Israel and Palestine? Or whatever occurs in the West Bank, with various forces getting ready to claim leadership after Abbas?

Also far from clear are the impacts of mutual tariffs imposed by the US and major trading partners. Who’ll profit, and who’ll lose is something not apparent.

Here his friend and supporter, Benjamin Netanyahu, is also involved in inquiries that seem even more threatening. Israel’s Prime Minister has no protection resembling the need to impeach prior to an indictment.

Sara has even less protection from the prosecutor’s rejection of her latest offer about a partial repayment, without admitting fault.

Yet Israel appears to be stable. Polls are showing that an election would return the recent coalition to power. Demonstrations by those offended by the Nationalities Law, the law which discriminates against gay and lesbian couples with respect to surrogate motherhood, and the prospect of an enlistment law seem without a capacity to achieve any change in the government.

So for the time being, the two governments important here seem to be what we’ll have for the next period of time.

Palestinians have themselves in a loop without apparent end. Should the fighting end in Syria, it’ll take a while to see what’s left of that country, then how much longer to put it back into some kind of shape.

Summer corresponds with these political questions. Lots of people are on their holiday. Nothing much is moving here pending the holidays. Or in America, in the run up to Labor Day.

The end of summer does not stop the commentary about Michael Cohen’s revelations about Trump. There remain writers, not on vacation, who continue to speculate. And Trump continues to respond. But are the President’s tweets and free-running comments simply that?

John McCain’s passing, with a final joust against the President, has played well.

More of what we don’t know for sure?

There’ll be other crises to provoke interest in impeachment, most likely even before the results of the congressional elections.

And more speculation about the anti-Semitism of Jeremy Corbyn, and what all that might mean for his future as head of the Labour Party.

What can Israel do if Trump announces something grandiose with respect to Palestinians?

Wait for clarification from aides?

Or hope that the deal with Gaza falls through in time to squash whatever the Americans suggest?

Speculation is the stuff of late summer, and there is plenty in the area to feed it.

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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University.  He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com