By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — BDS and other anti-Israel movements on western campuses and elsewhere are clearly at odds with what is happening here.
We shouldn’t be surprised. Americans and others operate by their own norms, with limited—if any—connection with the realities of Palestinian politics.
Those enamored of a Palestinian state might consider the condition of Palestinians.
The President of Palestine, still in office despite expiration of his term some nine years ago, is fading. And without an appointed replacement, his demise will open the way to who knows what kind of struggle. Reports are that contenders are assembling supporters and munitions.
And the West Bank is only half of the problem.
Gazans are nominally led by Hamas, and its willingness to move toward something of an agreement with Israel is being opposed by Abbas and his Fatah supporters in the West Bank.
It’s all about as messy as it can get, short of all out bloodshed, which may come with the further sinking of Abbas’ condition.
Yet overseas and some local supporters are continuing to call for major Israeli concessions, either toward a two-state solution, or maybe a one-state solution, with some of them demanding that Israelis give up to Palestinians and go back to wherever might accept them as home.
Israel is doing what it can to firm up right of center control of things, to assure settlements in the West Bank, and to assert the Jewish nature of the country.
This, in turn, is alienating some overseas and local Jews, and bringing expressions of concern or opposition from non-Jews who are citizens of Israel.
And the Trump administration is doing what it can to upset Palestinians. It’s challenged the notion of perpetual refugee status unto the nth generation, and dropped $200 million of what had been its support of UNWRA.
No surprise that this has produced sharply negative responses from both the West Bank and Gaza, asserting that the US will have no role in any peace negotiations.
So where are we?
Will American undergraduates and others, most who’ve never been here, determine that there’ll be a Palestinian state?
Will Palestinians continue to demand that x million be considered refugees, with many of the refugees maintaining their dependence on outside aid?
Or will the concern give in to right wing success in US and others’ politics, and allow an anomaly to continue around Israel with a largely independent but not quite state functioning in the West Bank, and something similar in Gaza?
If that continues, both sections will remain heavily dependent on Israel as well as on whatever assistance they continue to receive from overseas.
European governments may continue to pay lip service to the idea of a Palestinian state, welcome Mahmoud Abbas and whoever emerges as his successor, and take up some of the slack left by the US withdrawal from support, but with limited information about what is happening here.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and others may continue to express their support for whatever it is that Palestinians may want, yet deal with Israel as the lone state capable of influencing what happens.
Iran and Turkey will seem more serious in their support of Palestine, but may put it somewhere in their list of what will get serious support.
Reports are that Americans, led by Jared Kushner, suggested a federation or confederation of Israel, Jordan, and Palestine. The idea has a history, and now has been rejected by Jordan and Palestinians, with Israel quietly asserting its own independence.
BDS remains alive, with some performers refusing to appear here.
And the two state solution appears alive, but with some confusion as to what would be the state other than Israel.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com