By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — Both of my countries appear to be in the deep do do, with leaders on or over the borders of madness. From the end of September to late December the S&P Stock Index was on a wild ride, with decreases and increases in the range up to 300 points in a single day or two, and an overall decline of 20 percent.
Why the wildness?
Most likely something to do with the wild tweets and quick decisions of President Donald Trump.
High taxes on imports from China?
Quick pull out of US troops from Syria, and leaving what was left to Turkey?
Conflict with Congress over a wall against migrants from Mexico and farther south?
The stock market may be primarily an economic indicator, but the underlying realities of the US economy appear to be strong and stable. Low unemployment continues. In some places, more jobs than people to fill them.
Yet there is also room for panic in the market, and primarily in response to what is said and done in the White House.
Or said, but not done.
Dramatic comments about tariffs have not been matched with a tough onset of conflict over imports. And despite the quick resignation of a Defense Secretary and a key aide dealing with the issue, the announcement of a pull out from Syria has been modified to be maybe no pull out at all.
Remember the conflict with North Korea.
Trump is the first person to enter the presidency without previous political or governmental experience. And his record of Tweets and claims of fake news, along with assertions that seem to have no correspondence with reality suggest a man who is removed from what has been the accustomed behavior.
If other Presidents have approached a line of what could be described as reliability, none has so often gone beyond the line in full view of those attuned to the media.
The Economist headlines an item with “Jim Mattis and John Kelly had little influence on the president. They were, however, safeguards against calamity”
But aside from movements in his staff, at least some caused by what he has indicated he would do, what has he done?
Supporters will claim a welcome reduction in regulation, and assign it a role in promoting and stabilizing the economy.
However, the stock market suggests something other than stability.
We’re still watching what’ll happen with the wall, and the partial shutdown of the federal government.
In this little corner of the world, our Prime Minister announced that he’d be making a dramatic announcement on prime time.
Commentators speculated, and then we heard.
Dramatic, not so much.
He announced that he had asked, twice, to confront the informants who were providing the police and prosecutors with false information about him. Then he offered once again, for the right to confront his prosecutors, and to do it on television.
Channel 10 stopped broadcasting his announcement before he was finished.
Now we’ve heard from police/prosecutors something different about Bibi’s request about confronting his accusers.
All told, it seemed an effort to turn a judicial proceeding into something political. And with a sense of desperation, expressed by a man facing indictment, and the end of his career.
Sooner or later, depending on several things political as well as judicial.
Perhaps the drama lay in Bibi’s effort to gain advantage in an internal struggle within Likud, against Gideon Sa’ar.
Whatever, it seemed a poor move, likely to gain some support from those already in his corner, but not from the rest of us.
And now the Labour Party, once the national leader, may be entering the point of irrelevance.
Gabbay’s dismissal of Tsipi Livni has been followed by a convention with leaders in intense conflict over Gabbay’s leadership and his role in the party.
Currently with 24 seats in the Knesset, it’s polling at 8 seats.
Likud remains united, but under threat.
Legally, but perhaps not politically, Bibi can survive an announcement of indictment, expected in February.
We’ll see what happens.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com