By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — Our attention moved north. Initially there was an Israeli air attack against Iranian sites near Damascus. Syrian sources claimed that all Israeli missiles were intercepted.
Then there was a missile fired into the Golan. This was downed by Israeli defenses, and was followed by a massive attack–against Iranian facilities and Syrian air defense missiles.
We’ve heard about four or as many as 23 killed, with perhaps 12 of them Iranian.
The events caused a day’s closing of the Mt Hermon sky slopes, but that has been lifted.
Are we back to a tense status quo ante? If so, how long will it last?
A spokeswoman from the Russian Foreign Ministry has said that Israel ought to cool it.
On the Palestinian front, there’s been a cancellation of a meeting amongUS, Israeli, and Palestinian finance ministers, which had been scheduled as part of the Davos conference in Switzerland. The cancellation came from the Palestinians, opposed to any American involvement.
Are they still angry about the movement of the Embassy to Jerusalem?
Does it reveal Abbas’ inability to move beyond the fantasy of moving history backward by 50 or 70 years, asserting the rights of refugees and their descendants to return home, and to govern an area from the Jordan River as far as the Mediterranean?
And there’s been commotion along the Gaza border, with a wounded IDF officer, one dead Palestinian and several Palestinians wounded.
Bibi ordered a halting, or perhaps only a delay of transferring Qatar’s allotment of money to Hamas.
Then we’ve heard that Qatar would be giving the money to the UN for humanitarian purposes in Gaza, as well as refusals from Hamas about receipt of money.
Then the recent weekend demonstrations were moderate. Thousands protested, there are reports of 21 injured, and one death.
So where are we?
Better off than in 1948, 1967, or 1973.
We have allies in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Emirates. Turkey is less friendly than in years past, and Iran a lot less friendly than before its revolution.
We’re still an outlier in this region, different in many ways from our neighbors, and not fully welcome by any of the nearby countries.
This is part of the setting for our election campaign.
Some parties are talking about a two state solution. Getting along with Palestinians is part of several campaigns.
Polls of Israeli Arabs show substantial numbers feeling that their parties aren’t doing enough with respect to joining governments and looking after their interests.
Bibi seems to have abandoned the two-state solution, as has the New Right.
Whether the Prime Minister will continue to compete for re-election after the expected announcement of indictments is an open question.
So far his colleagues in Likud, along with the leader of SHAS, with Deri facing the prospect of more jail time, are sticking with Bibi. Supporters indicate that no one in Likud or elsewhere is capable of replacing him, but we know about cemeteries filled with the irreplaceable.
Bibi is being chided by opponents for abandoning Israel’s policy of being quiet about attacking Syria.
That’s a complex issue.
No one thinks that it might be the Nepalese air force, or that of the Central African Republic. However, the brazen admission of Israeli responsibility might cause the Iranians and Syrians to feel a need to respond.
Bibi decided to elevate himself as the Defender of Israel, promising a response to Iran as it continues provocations.
Bibi is also attacking both the prosecutors-police and the media, as being opposed to him and making mountains out of mole hills in charging him for misdeeds.
While there is warfare both North and South, the East is more complex.
For some years we’ve been at a tense level of cooperation, sort of. Both Israeli security services and Palestinian work against Hamas and other extremists. More than 100,000 West Bank Palestinians work daily in Israel. There is border crossing for religious and family purposes, as well as medical care.
There is also a firm reluctance of the Palestinians to settle things formally. No serious talks about peace. Animosity in education, payments to the families of terrorists. And occasional attacks against individual Israelis.
Where are we going?
Who knows?
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com