By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — Despite a fierce attack from Bibi, Gideon Sa’ar succeeded in getting to #5 on the Knesset list of Likud. Above him are Netanyahu, Yuli Edelstein, Yitzhak Katz, and Gilad Erdan.
Bibi responded with a comment that Sa’ar couldn’t expect to be a senior minister in his next government.
Beneath Bibi’s assumptions, there is movement in Likud, getting ready to replace him.
Will it come with the announcement of the Legal Adviser of the Government that there’s indictments for bribery and breach of public trust, due in a week or two? Or only after the election, a new government, hearings and a final determination of Bibi’s fate?
We can assume that each of the men–other than Bibi–in the top five are planning and plotting. They’re not speaking publicly about a scheme to replace Bibi.
A group of several thousand new Likudniks, included neither Sa’ar nor Netanyahu in the people they selected in the party primary.
There’s also movement elsewhere. While Likud is polling at 32 seats, Gantz’s party is polling at 22 and Lapid about about 11.
Talks are taking place to unite Gantz and Lapid, along with nastiness from Likud about Gantz’s qualifications.
Polls show that such a combination will get more seats than Likud.
Gabi Ashkenazi is working to arrange a deal between Gantz and Lapid. If he would join the party, that would make three former Commanders in Chief on the same list.
Two of the generals are left of center, but imagine the protests from Likud and the far left.
But Likud will be crippled by Bibi, and the far left (Labor and Meretz) are polling near the number where they might not make it into the Knesset.
They are also pondering a union, whose prospect is polling at 10 seats.
American politics are simpler. Donald is tied up with a Democratic House of Representatives, and Republicans will prevent an impeachment by their control of the Senate. So our friends across the sea will wait until the election of 2020 to fix things, and hope that Democrats will reduce their candidates to someone stronger than Hillary was in 2016.
Here it’s a slam bang against the top player, plenty dirtied (along with wife and son), maybe protected by the shaky hangover of Likud unity, unless the opposition manages to work through its egos and gets enough votes to give the President a problem of deciding who has the best chance of forming a Knesset majority.
The Labor Party will have its primary this week. 24 sitting Knesset Members plus some potential newcomers will be competing for 5-8 realistic places.
Both Gantz and the New Right have appointed several prominent women to their tickets, and Lapid has moved closer to LGBT with the appointment of a gay to his list.
Ten days before the deadline for announcing parties and their candidates, there is talk of several unions.
That between Gantz and Lapid is most prominent, insofar as it would give the venture more Knesset seats than Likud.
There’s also talk of a union between Beit Yehudi and one or more of the other right wing parties.
As well as between Labor and Meretz. And the two ultra-Orthodox parties, Yedut Hatorah and SHAS.
All of them have been on again off again, with party leaders scrambling to get the best deal possible, and in the case of Labor, Meretz, Beit Yehudi and SHAS, to produce something that will get them above the line where they won’t get into the Knesset.
Israel has moved far from the past, when politics was largely Likud vs Labor. Currently ideology appears to have lessened in its pull, with the Prime Minister’s legal problems front and center, as well as the near collapse of left wing Meretz and Labor.
The weakness of the Palestinians and their issue has something to do with the weakness of Israel’s left. The strength of the Center, led by Gantz and Lapid, signals the weakness of Netanyahu as much as any ideological movement. Both Lapid and Gantz have spoken against any major removal of settlements from the West Bank, and all seem in agreement on keeping Gaza in its place, perhaps with an improvement in its living standards.
Who has the pragmatic skill to keep things afloat? And to manage the economy and keep issues of human rights reasonable?
Also involved is the action of Arab parties. The separation of Ahmad Tibi from the United List gives some hope to those who see one or both of the Arab parties working with others to keep Netanyahu from leading a government. Both Arab parties express opposition to joining a government, but support from the outside is possible, in exchange for more goodies going to the Arab sector.
Likewise the ultra-Orthodox parties. Their concern is with practical issues: support for their Yeshivot and keeping their young men out of the IDF. Here, too, there is some flexibility, along with fierce arguments within the ultra-Orthodox about what is possible.
Those wanting clarity on a two-state solution should take a back seat. That issue isn’t prominent. And it won’t be until issues are settled among the Palestinians. And perhaps not then.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com