By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — It’s been a tense few days.
After a rocket attack that destroyed a home north of Tel Aviv and wounded family members, the IDF responded with a massive destruction of empty buildings in Gaza. Included in the destruction was the building of the Hamas leader’s office.
Then there was an Egyptian engineered cease fire, but broken a day later by Gazans.
Meanwhile the IDF had assembled an impressive array of armor (tank, armored personnel carriers, and artillery) near the Gazan border.
Were they waiting for the go ahead? Trying to frighten Hamas and its friends into quiet? Tensed toward the weekend’s commemoration of a year of Gazan attacks and Palestinian Land Day?
It wouldn’t be pretty to move that equipment through thousands of young Gazans demonstrating, with inevitable injuries and deaths of the Palestinians.
So they might move a day in advance of the weekend.
Or wait until after the weekend.
But there are Israeli elections scheduled for a bit more than a week after those events.
Would Bibi risk his future with a war that will–at the least–produce some Israeli casualties?
Or would he bomb a few more empty buildings and declare victory?
An agreement, produced by Egypt involves an increase in benefits provided by Israel and a promise of Hamas to behave.
So it looked like another plonk. Both sides avoided fighting, with large demonstrations, but most kept from the border with Gazan monitors. There were three Gazan deaths and no serious Israeli injuries.
And the election could proceed without a threat of casualties.
Satisfying?
But there was a renewal of rocket attacks from Gaza after a pale Land Day demonstration. All of which landed in empty fields.
Then a response with the firing by Israeli tanks toward empty targets in Gaza.
There are Israeli politicians calling for more forceful action, but the heads of government and the military are content to leave things close to where they’ve been. And most likely where they’ll continue.
A mutual expression of temper, but little else.
Israelis living close to Gaza are suffering from the greatest tension, but a serious invasion would be worse for them and for others.
You want an example of an insoluble problem. This is it.
Politicians are allowed to argue for something more decisive, but what would that be? An action that would quiet Gaza for months? Or give Israel with an undesired control over a couple of million restive Palestinians?
Naftali Bennett is campaigning to become Defense Minister in Netanyahu’s government, and claiming to have a way to solve the problem of Gaza. He’s calling on the Legal Adviser to the Government to order Netanyahu to convene the Cabinet, and saying that Bibi has agreed, by himself, to a sloppy status quo ante.
Will this play against Likud in the election? Or simply seem to strengthen Bennett’s claim on the Defense Ministry?
Meanwhile Bennett is polling in the range of 5-7 seats, most likely not be enough to gain him such a ranking ministry, should it be Netanyahu who is called to form a government.
Israel is complying with its agreement to improve things for Gaza, and saying that it’s unclear who sent five missiles into Israel after Land Day.
With Hamas’ enmity is unlikely to be quieted by any Israeli concessions, we’re waiting to see if the increase in benefits to Gaza are delivered.
Hamas is claiming victory, as it usually does. Even against the rubble background of its leader’s office,
Then another missile sent towards Israel. Like many of them, this one didn’t make it out of Gaza.
And what’ll happen with those Israeli tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, and troops along the Gazan border?
Foreign news outlets have been leaning to the side of the poor Palestinians, fighting for freedom or better conditions from the Israelis.
And what about their other neighbors, the Egyptians, who’ve been equally as nasty as the Israelis, and without supplying the tons of goods, and facilitating the money from Qatar?
There’ll be more of the same, perhaps with a scaling down of the attacks from across the border.
Until the next escalation.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com