By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM –Voting’s tomorrow, Tuesday, April 9th, but it may be more than a month before we know the real results.
Sure, in this functioning democracy, we’ll know within 12 hours which parties receive how many seats in the Knesset. But none of them will get a majority. And then there’s the President’s polling of party leaders to judge who has the best chance of forming a government. And then more than a month for the chosen to finalize the government he creates.
And if that candidate fails, there’ll be another Presidential choice.
Meanwhile, things will remain as they are, with Bibi in charge, and procedures continuing– perhaps toward his imprisonment for various crimes.
The latest polls suggest a tilt toward the right, but are problematic with respect to Bibi’s chance of forming a stable government.
Actually, Gantz’s Blue-White party has been polling higher, but the cluster of right wing parties has been getting more than those in the center and left.
However, the cluster on the right is a problem, and leads to speculation that something else will happen after the voting.
Since late March, Blue-White has polled between 27 and 32 seats, while Likud has polled between 26 and 31.
The results of the polling can be seen here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Israeli_legislative_election
So the leading party will get about a quarter of the Knesset total of 120 seats.
Other polling shows that a majority of Israelis don’t want Benjamin Netanyahu as their Prime Minister, but more expect him to be the PM than expect that of Benjamin Gantz. There’s pretty much a tie between those desiring Gantz and those desiring Netanyahu, with neither getting a majority.
Should Bibi get the President’s nod, he’ll be faced with up to nine parties, with most having in the range of 4-7 seats, in order to cobble together a majority of 61 to 67 sets.
Israel’s current government had six parties, now down to five.
Thus, eight of Bibi’s colleagues are likely to have the wherewithal to end his government
And several of them are demanding the same ministries, seemingly as their price of joining the government. And one is insisting on the legalization of marijuana.
Much easier would be a government of national unity, based on a linkage between Likud and Blue-White, which might in itself have a majority of the Knesset.
But Benny Gantz has asserted several times that he’ll not join a government with Benjamin Netanyahu
Will he hold to that after the election? And would his party colleagues join him in going along with Likud?
It’s been a nasty campaign.
Likud has asserted that Blue-White is leftist, and the captive of the leftist media. But in reality Blue-White is a wide coalition of individuals and parties, linked by their opposition to Bibi. On the left its candidates include the former head of the Labor Federation, while its right side includes a former Defense Minister who was aligned with Bibi, and former aides of Bibi.
Might there be a revolt against Netanyahu in Likud that will allow a Government of National Unity, but with someone other than Bibi at the top of Likud?
Currently it appears that he is firmly in control of the party. In anticipation of ministerial positions, however, along with Bibi’s likely judicial demise, there may be a potential for revolt during the simmering period after the election.
Me First is the eternal rule, and we’ll see if there is a possibility of movement within Blue-White and Likud for the adjustments appropriate to a linkage under the heading of National Unity.
Moshe Feiglin is one of the wild cards. As head of Zehut (Identity), he is polling in the range of 4-8 seats. Feiglin has been around for a while. He is an extreme right wing and religious Jew, who has mixed his appeal with extreme liberalism. This has attracted Israelis concerned to legalize marijuana, and he has so far insisted on legalization as his price of joining a government.
Without him, Likud might not be able to reach a majority of the Knesset.
All these raise the questions to be resolved after the election, and perhaps within the first month or more to be consumed in putting things together.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com