By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — The election is over, but we’re still a way from the new government.
Official results look like a Likud victory, but it’s close, and the winning side is loaded with small parties that will be difficult to meld into a government.
So far we’re hearing of competing demands for the positions of Defense, Justice, and Education. There’s also argument about the recruitment of ultra-Orthodox to the army or national service, and toughness toward Hamas in Gaza.
Avigdor Lieberman is making noises about not joining the government. If he votes in the opposition, then Bibi can’t succeed.
Bibi’s been quiet with respect to Trump’s Plan of a Century with respect to Palestinians. And with respect to three pending indictments against the Prime Minister.
The Palestinians are likely to scuttle whatever Trump proposes. If Israeli politicians control themselves, they can get out of it without saying anything.
Meanwhile, the moon landing flubbed. Apparently things went well until some 150 meters from the surface, then crash.
Likud finally won a seat more than Blue-White, but there are five smaller parties that must be satisfied. The Bennett-Shaked combine did not make it into the Knesset. So we’ll need new Justice and Education ministers.
And Donald Trump and Theresa May aren’t in noticeably better shape.
Here’s what’ll happen here.
This week there’ll be an official announcement of the results, pending appeals.
Then depending if Bennett-Shaked appeal, there’ll be a recount of some ballots.
The President will consult with party heads, to determine who has the best chance of forming a government.
We might assume that the result will be Bibi.The chosen will have six weeks to form a government.
We’ve been hearing six weeks worth of speculation about what might happen.If Lieberman keeps his party out of the government, then there is a tie. Or if part of Kahlon’s party doesn’t join as well, there might be a majority behind Blue-White.
Gantz called Netanyahu, when the results were finalized. It was less a concession than a statement that each would do what was expected.
One reason might be bad blood, resulting from accusations about Gantz’s stability.
Whatever happens, it is not likely to be quick.
And meantime, we’ll continue with the status quo, more or less.
Both Trump and Putin did what they could to help Bibi, and they got him–perhaps–slightly better than a tie.
Bibi and supporters are claiming a great victory, but the reality is that it’s close to even. And if Lieberman does not join the government, it will be a tie: 60-60.
What’ll be with the judicial process is not clear.
Likudniks are claiming that the people are sovereign, and that they have chosen a man whose slight departures from the conventional are now defined as tolerable.
There’s a hold in the transferring of documents from the prosecutor to Netanyahu. A decision invalidating Bibi’s relying on a loan or gift to pay for his lawyers has been appealed. And meantime the lawyers are not working.
So this may delay the onset of hearings from July to August or beyond. And there might be a move to protect Bibi by legislation against the prosecution of a sitting Prime Minister. And a court case against any such legislation.
Time tables are likely to slip. Lawyers will claim that there is too much to absorb in a few months.
So we may have Bibi until his government falls from internal problems.
That can happen sooner than the completion of a judicial process. His previous coalition collapsed under the weight of a proposal to regularize the recruitment of Yeshiva students. That is still on the table, under a demand from the Supreme Court, and there is likely to be the same opponents in the government.I
t’ll be two ultra-Orthodox parties, maybe with the Right Wing Union, against what may be 60 or a few more seats, with a lack of party unity among government parties.
So depending on how things fall, Bibi’s government can last for years, months, or less.
By one scenario, a narrowly based government will collapse over the recruitment of the ultra-Orthodox to the army.
By another, it’ll last with a bit of this and a bit of that.
Yet another scenario is a government of national unity, with Blue-White ministers, which would bring about the collapse of Blue-White.
Bibi’s ego will remain prominent, reinforced by his sense of great victory in the election, keep him from a resignation, and hinder any movement of Likudniks to drop him.
So we may have a plodding government, kept from its tensions of accomplishing anything significant.Lots of speculation.
*
Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University.He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com