By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — Bibi has declared victory, and widespread support, but that ain’t true.
Actually, Likud ended up in a tie vote with Blue-White, a party created only a couple of months before the election.
Bibi’s support comes also from a cluster of religious parties, and two smaller entities whose heads are hoping to return to the ministerial positions they once held.
None of which keeps Bibi from being at the center of great gatherings, where thousands of supporters cheer him and his wife, while he declares unprecedented success.
At the present, it looks like the new government will resemble and behave like that which came before, and perhaps further to the right..
And the judicial process against Bibi?
That will likely go on, with Bibi spending part of his time defending himself, while continuing to lead the country.
His line will be complete innocence, or perhaps a slip up here and there, but not enough to disturb what he claims is the large crowd that elected him.
We can expect the prosecutors to be persistent, if slow. There’ll be opposition to any effort to legislate freedom from charges for a sitting Prime Minister, including a court challenge of any such legislation that passes.
And persistent delay from Bibi and his lawyers– assuming that he has a cluster being paid how?
And still unsolved are the charges against Sara for mismanagement–criminal–of the Prime Minister’s household.
The task of Blue-White was considerable. By some estimates, 60 percent of the Israeli electorate is right of center. And with Bibi cheering himself and supporters on, it was a daunting task for opponents.
He charged his opponents with being leftist. In reality, Blue-White is centrist, perhaps with a tilt to the right. The truly left wing Meretz and Labor, didn’t manage to get 10 percent of the Knesset seats together.
A fixed alliance between the ultra-Orthodox parties, plus the right-wing (extremist?) Orthodox and Settler party United Right along with Likud, gathered 46 seats. Another nine seats from Lieberman and Kahlon are in Bibi’s camp, with a Knesset majority of 65 seats, although they may threaten his government’s longevity.
Bennett and Shaked’s departure did not work well enough to get them into the Knesset.
Among the oddities of Israeli politics is the intense support of Likud among communities marked by a high incidence of Middle Eastern Jews, lower than average on measures of economic well being. They appear in the north and south, alongside problematic borders of Gaza and Lebanon. Voting percentages above 60 percent for Likud come along with suffering from occasional rockets near the border of Gaza.
These are Traditional Jews, likely to be Orthodox, often wearing kipot and eating Kosher, but sometimes driving on Shabbat for family picnics or a football game.
They are supporting a party that does not resemble them, and that is not forthcoming in dealing with their problems. But the support is strong, and has lasted through generations.
Somewhere in the air are the problematic relations between Israel and overseas Jews, primarily those in the US.
Bibi doesn’t need them. He prefers twenty-one seats of the two ultra-Orthodox parties and an Orthodox-Settler party even more outspoken on the need to make the country more Jewish , but certainly not Conservative or Reform.
The incidence of Reform and Conservative Jews within Israel is too small to influence anything. Secular Jews and the Traditional by and large don’t seem to care. If they have American cousins, they are likely to be Orthodox.
Bibi himself has been aware of the issue, and has come close to embracing overseas Jews, but not so close as to weaken his links with Israelis. He has approved expansion of the Western Wall’s portion for mixed prayer, while delaying its implementation.
Concerning Gaza and the West Bank, he’s unlikely to do anything dramatic.
A two-state solution is unrealistic, given the opposition of West Bank or Gazan leaders to anything other than what they desire.
We keep hearing about two-states from Europeans and other sympathizers with the Palestinians. But what would this mean for Gaza?
Its problems are said to be all our fault, but what about the Gazans and Egyptians?
The Gazans are anything but warm and cuddly. Who really wants them?
We can count on Bibi reacting against any overt aggression from the West Bank or Gaza, but not expending Israeli lives on invasions not likely to solve problems.
It’ll be a while till we know who gets what ministries in the new government. Currently the principal claimant on the Judicial Ministry is a man opposed to any significant judicial independence. And claimants on Defense and Finance Ministries are the leaders of political parties that seem too small for such prizes. The man demanding the Education Ministry seems to be the most extremist of religious settlers. The Interior Minister, the leader of SHAS, looks to be on the road to another criminal indictment.
So there seems likely to be a number of messes, administratively.
And despite Bibi’s claim of a fantastic personal victory, his situation of being in a tied vote with his major opponent, a number of problems with his colleagues, and his own continued judicial problems suggests a government likely to be troubled, and perhaps short-lived.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com