By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — We’re past the due date for final party alignments and lists of candidates. It was a scramble the last few days, and the big view to September 17th election is that the results look like the last time, more or less.
Beginning on the left, Meretz combined with Ehud Barak, who accepted his own place so low on the list that he may not make it into the Knesset. But in the meantime, he is beating the anti-Netanyahu drums and seems satisfied with a place as campaigner if not a future Member of Knesset. The new party is labeled the Democratic Union, and it has sliced off a prominent member of the Labor list, Stav Shaffir. That reflects a movement in Labor, which might end the party’s participation in the Knesset.
Labor under its leadership of Amir Peretz, combined with Orli Levy-Abekasis’s party Gesher (Bridge). Her background is both Mizrahi and rightist, and claims a social program. But the polls are indicating a reduction from 6 to 5 seats for Labor. And if they don’t get 4, they won’t have anything. Guesses are that Peretz was seeking to establish a broader base, and to attract Jews of Middle Eastern origin. Comments are that none of the six Knesset Members of the party were speaking with one another, and prospects for the party are not bright.
There has also been some tense maneuvering on the right, affected by Sara Natanyahu’s opposition to Ayelet Shaked’s joining Likud, and Benjamin Netanyahu’s maneuvering to enhance and unite a right wing part to include Kahanist members.
What remains is the United Right’s acceptance of Shaked and Bennett, with Shaked put in the first place on the list, but with Rafi Peretz, now number 2 on the list, but continuing as party leader. Bennett is #4 on the list. And while the combine includes a commitment to support Netanyahu as Prime Minister, guesses are that such a promise may not hold. Both Shaked and Bennett have been quoted as saying that they’ll support a right wing government, and Netanyahu’s position in their thoughts isn’t all that clear. United Right ultimately did not accept Itamar Ben Gvir, a Kahanist, on its list, and he joined with others in Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power), to threaten a split in the right wing, and a loss of votes as Otzma is not likely to pass the threshold for Knesset membership.
Recent polls have suggested a tie between Likud and Blue White, with neither having leadership of 61 Knesset seats needed to form a government, without being joined by Avigdor Lieberman.
Lieberman seems to be the key, as we’re a month and one half from the actual voting. Lieberman prevented Netanyahu from creating a government after the April election, when he asserted his opposition to what the ultra-Orthodox were demanding with respect to the non-recruitment of young men to the IDF.
More recently Lieberman has spoken of supporting the party that gets the most votes, as well as insisting on a government of national unity between Blue White and Likud. Insofar as Blue White has said that it won’t join a government with Netanyahu, that leaves things in the air. Currently Avigdor Lieberman is polling 10 or 11 Knesset seats, with his support going beyond his base of Russian speakers.
Bibi has had one of his underlings pass around a petition that 40 Knesset contenders in his party have signed, indicating that they’ll support Bibi, and only Bibi, as the next Prime Minister. Reports are that some Likudniks are grumbling, and that their commitment won’t hold.
Outside of the contenders for power, the picture remains about the same as last time.
Arab parties have coalesced, and the two ultra-Orthodox parties seem destined for doing as well as they did. And 32 parties are in the contest, with most not destined to make it into the Knesset.
Among the parties that are registered, but not likely to get enough votes to reach the Knesset:
Several identified with the right wing and religious. A party led by former Likudnik and mayor of Tiberias, currently quarreling with the Interior Ministry for his failure to enact a budget. Several liberal parties, including that led by Moshe Feiglin, seeking to attract those Israelis wanting freedom for marijuana, who did not make it pass the threshold in the most recent election. Plus an ultra-Orthodox party committed to opposition to homosexuals, lesbians, and other sexual minorities. And the Pirate Party, which gathered 895 votes last time.
There’s still a month and a half to go. We’ll see what happens.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com