JERUSALEM –It’s getting more dicey.
There have been attacks, attributed to Israel, on Iranian locations in Iraq and Syria, as well as Hezbollah locations in Syria and Lebanon. And in Gaza. As well as action searching for attackers in the West Bank.
And there’s an election in about three weeks.
Polls suggest that there’s a virtual tie between Likud and Blue and White, with neither having a clear edge in forming a government.
Holding the balance is Avigdor Lieberman. And he’s speaking as if his preference would be for a government led by Blue and White.
Bibi is working to move two small right wing parties out of the running. Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut (Identity) appeals to extreme liberals, who object to controls over marijuana; and Otzmah Yehudit (Jewish Power) has had two of its candidates ruled out by the Supreme Court for their Kahanist views. Each of these parties seemed likely to get the equivalent of one to two seats, which would be wasted votes for the right wing.
Bibi made some doubtful commitments to Feiglin that he’d be appointed a minister, that there’d be legislation in favor of medical marijuana, and that his party’s debts would be covered by Likud. All that on condition that he withdraw from the contest.
And we’re wondering if Bibi, as Defense Minister, is maneuvering internationally to heat things up and increase the votes for his Likud Party and his own national leadership.
Attacks have brought forth comments from senior Americans that Iraqis have a right to defend themselves, and that Israel may have gone too far in bombarding Iranian installations in that country.
Putin is being quiet, more or less. Seemingly satisfied with arrangements between himself and Bibi about their two national armies operating in Syria.
Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah and a major factor in Lebanon, has promised some kind of retaliation for Israel’s attack on a Beirut site used to upgrade the accuracy of missiles.
Gaza remains as a mystery, recently confounded by the killing of several Hamas police personnel, seemingly by one of the restive competitors of Hamas.
And there has been action between Israel and Gaza, with various threats from each side against the other.
None of Israel’s adversaries is the equivalent of the IDF, but all have the means to hurt Israelis throughout the country.
So they present a quandary. How much should Israel attack in order to downgrade their capacities and warn them of what might happen? And how much should Israel accept by way of force coming from them?
We’re not entirely surrounded by animosity. Egypt is usually cooperative and helpful with Gaza, when it isn’t opening its border to the importation to Gaza of items likely to be used against us. Jordan is often nasty in comments, giving voice to the two-thirds of its population that is ethnically Palestinian. But it’s not a site to be reckoned with.
And further afield Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates are friendly, and cooperate with Israel in their postures against Iran.
Currently the concern is whether forces in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza will become uppity, and begin lobbing their missiles against our cities.
The United States is being friendly and supportive. But it’s a large American government, and not all is well. Nastiness concerning Israeli actions in Iraq may–or may not–reflect the thinking of the President and those close to him.
There’s also the prospect of an American peace initiative with respect to Palestine. Occasional comments that it may be publicized, in part or in whole, prior to the Israeli election have made Bibi nervous. There’s only so much that he can deal with at one time.
It now seems clear that the program won’t be published prior to Israel’s election. And if countless delays signify anything, it may never be published. Neither Palestinians nor Israelis are ready for it.
Bibi should also be aware of Likudniks, said to be speaking about what comes after Bibi. He’s scheduled for hearings by the Attorney General about three weeks after the election. Those are likely to heighten discussions of what happens after Bibi, even while he may be maneuvering to create a government.
It’ll depend on the election, and what Lieberman decides.
Or so the polls suggest.
And there is still time for one or more of our surrounding adversaries to do something to heat up a confrontation.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com