JERUSALEM — The election was only the first step.
It seems to have closed the door on Bibi, even though he doesn’t recognize it.
Both Likud and Blue AND White fell short of the 61 seats needed to form a government.
What exists may be a free for all, almost. But perhaps not for Bibi.
The line up looks like this
Blue White with 33 seats
Likud with 31 seats
The United Arab parties at 13 seats
SHAS at 9
Yehadut Hatorah at 8
Avigdor Lieberman at 8 seats
A shaky right wing party at 7
Labor at 6
The Democratic Front (i.e., Meretz) at 5
Rightwing parties amount to 55 seats, not altogether tight.
Left and Center parties at 55 seats
With Lieberman seeming to hold the key with 8 seats.
Maybe. We’re still more than a month from a final decision. Currently there’s a lot of blather, and threats of a third election.
Bibi is claiming to be the head of his party, and a group of right wing allies. But without 61 seats.
Blue and White has more seats, but also lacks 61 seats.
Lieberman is calling for a secular combine of Likud, Blue and White, and his Israel Beiteinu.
Currently Bibi is in the way.
Next up, on September 22nd, was the onset of conversations between party heads and the President.
Then Rosh Hashana.
Then, on October 2nd, the onset of hearings on three charges against Bibi.
There are many possibilities.
We’ll hope for peace through this period, but there’s great tension focused on Iran and Saudi Arabia, with Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza always tense, and some wondering about Iran attacking Israel after its success in Saudi Arabia.
Among the domestic possibilities:
A Blue and White-Likud-Lieberman coalition, without Bibi.
This is probably the most attractive possibility, but it depends on an upturn within Likud, focused on removing Bibi from a leadership position. So far, he shows no signs of withdrawal.
We’re hearing of a deal between Bibi and Lieberman, but that seems remote and desperate, and depends on Lieberman accepting partnership with the ultra-Orthodox.
Another possibility is a Blue andWhite, Labor, Meretz, Lieberman coalition, with some degree of support and perhaps affiliation with the United Arab party. But that would depend on an Arab-Lieberman accommodation that seems doubtful. Indeed, Lieberman says that he won’t coalesce with Labor or Meretz.
There might also be a possibility in Blue and White plus Lieberman, Labor, Meretz and SHAS. But that would depend on some flexibility from Lieberman and Yair Lapid, as well as some flexibility from SHAS, whose leader is on the edge of an indictment.
Lots of balls in the air.
Some commentators are predicting a third election. But that’s not likely to change anything.
So far the opening bluster of Netanyahu is sounding as if he has won. He’s signed with Likud, the ultra-Orthodox, and the right-wing party a statement of unity, and he’s called for talks with Blue andWhite about a government of national unity. With himself as the obvious Prime Minister.
Blue and White has responded with a call for national unity, but with Gantz as the Prime Minister.
Bibi’s front is beginning to wobble. Voices from the ultra-Orthodox and the right wing party are less than enthusiastic, and speaking of accommodation with Blue and White. And Bibi’s good friend Donald Trump has been quiet. A former Secretary of State has indicated that Bibi provided bad information to the Administration.
Gantz has proposed a government along with Likud, with Bibi in a ministerial position, as long as his legal status allows.
For at least a while, that’ll go nowhere, insofar as Bibi has historically pruned his followers who get too close, and has refused to select a next in line. Among Likud fears is that the squabbling that will come while selecting their next leader.
And we’re hearing of an accommodation brewing between the ultra-Orthodox and Blue and White.
So it’s possible to imagine a combination that leaves out Liberman. That is, Blue and White, Labor, Meretz, and the two ultra-Orthodox parties. Impossible? Who knows what may happen?
It may be November before there is any clarity.
Latest news is that the President has heard that both leaders cannot form a government, except by combining. The President has asked them to talk, along with their representatives..
Bibi is at the middle. If he becomes Prime Minister, he can’t be removed until a court finds him guilty. If Gantz becomes Prime Minister, and Bibi another minister, Bibi would have to resign as soon as he is indicted.
Hearings toward an indictment begin on October 2nd.
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Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com