JERUSALEM — We’re in the midst of a 21 day period, coming after neither of two party leaders could form a government, when any Knesset Member who can get 61 votes is enabled to form a government.
Can anyone do it?
Bibi has been indicted for the crimes of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. While not required to resign as Prime Minister, he is being called upon by a variety of leading individuals to give it up, allow someone else to lead Likud, and to get on with a government of unity between Likud, Blue AND White, and perhaps other parties.
But Bibi is holding firm, calling fraud on the prosecutors, police, and media, and leading a campaign to keep him in office.
If these 21 days finish without an agreement, then there’ll be another election, the third in less than a year, and no drastic changes predicted.
Bibi’s supporters include several ministers in his government. But other ministers, including leading members of Likud, are being silent on what he should do.
There was a loud demonstration with several thousand of his supporters, and some measure of violence against media personnel covering the event.
We can guess that Bibi will be the last person to recognize his failure, and his departure from the public scene, but he’s not reached that position.
So far, Gideon Sa’ar is the only prominent Likudnik indicating that he’ll run in a primary. Yet even Sa’ar is modest in his campaign. He’s not fighting a decision, led by Bibi, to have a primary after the end of these 21 days.
Bibi’s supporters, who are managing Likud’s negotiations with Blue and White, are calling for Bibi to be first up as Prime Minister, holding office for three months, or five, or six, then being replaced by Gantz for two years, then perhaps coming back to office after his trial.
Blue and White is refusing to accept an agreement where an indicted Prime Minister is given another period of time in office.
Meanwhile, there is no end of commentary as to what is possible, and what is likely, as well as an equal volume of proposals from individuals identified with one or another of the parties.
Avigdor Lieberman is suggesting–in Russian–that he may be amenable to joining a right wing government. That’s causing politicians to jump on the possibility, with some of Bibi’s supporters going back to the possibility of his ruling for three to six months, getting a three-judge trial in Jerusalem as Prime Minister, and then giving up to Gantz.
But Lieberman continues to demand things that the ultra-Orthodox, and most likely Bibi, will oppose. They include an opening of markets on Sabbath, city buses on Sabbath, civil marriage, a facilitation of conversion to Judaism, and more liberal recruitment policy for the IDF.
All told, Lieberman seems to be pondering a situation that he might control, but he can’t. And he speaks in such confusion as to mask what his real intentions might be, assuming that he has them.
There have been demonstrations by thousands, calling for Bibi to resign. And other demonstrations by thousands yelling their support of Bibi. Rumors of arrangements in Knesset by a right-wing bloc to vote him as Prime Minister. But it doesn’t seem likely as we’re coming to the end of this period.
What’s especially worrying is the substantial numbers of people, and political leaders, on each side of a sharp divide. Are we on the edge of violence? Leading figures among the prosecutors have been assigned personal guards, given the threats against their lives. Ahmad Tibi has also claimed to the the target of numerous threats.
Meanwhile there are several efforts to sign up a majority of the Knesset: by the Knesset head, Likudnik Yuri Edelstein, Benny Gantz, and Avigdor Lieberman. Both Edelstein and Gantz are, presumably, opposed to Bibi, but Lieberman is muttering that either Bibi or Gantz, as long as they agree to his extensive demands about religion and politics.
Lieberman is saying that he’ll sign both for Bibi and for Gantz, and that he won’t sign for either.. There is some question as to whether Bibi will be allowed to form a government while under indictment. All this is new territory. No precedents. Lots to be decided judicially.
We’ve had a temporary, or transitional government for several months. It’s limited in its capacity to make appointments, or additions to the transitional budget. Currently there’s an argument as to whether Minister of Defense Naftali Bennett was appointed properly, and whether the transitional Minister of Justice can have a role in the appointment of a transitional replacement for a senior prosecutor whose term is expiring.
It’s not a happy time in the Promised Land.
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Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com