JERUSALEM — Avigdor Lieberman has been in politics for several decades. Earlier, he was close to Bibi, but later protested his less aggressive postures toward Palestinians. He came from a Zionist background in Kishinev, and in Israel has led the Yisrael Beitenu (Israel our Home) party. It began mostly with the support of Russian immigrants, but has since expanded its appeal–both due to the aging of the Russian population and Lieberman’s most recent posture as a strong opponent of the ultra-Orthodox and Benyamin Netanyahu.
He’s had a stormy career, holding several positions as aide to Netanyahu and as minister of this or that. There have also been police investigations, charges, and a trial that ended with a not guilty verdict. He’s run his party as a close operation, exercising control over its members and their public pronouncements.
Currently his party has 8 seats, enough to hold a balance between a right wing block headed by Likud, and a center-left cluster led by Blue and White.
His best-known position is his support for a number of secular demands strongly opposed by the ultra-Orthodox. They include opening grocery stores on the Sabbath, providing public transportation on the Sabbath, liberalizing conversion, allowing secular marriages, and facilitating recruitment to the IDF.
He’s supported a secular union of Likud and Blue and White, as well as a third national election. He has avoided joining Likud due to its affiliation with the ultra-Orthodox, and has avoiding affiliating with Blue and White due to that alignment’s dependence on support by the United Arab List.
In the current squabbles, he’s said that he’ll sign a petition led by Likud, and a petition led by Blue and White, both of them asking the President to name the party head to form a government. And he’s also said that he’ll sign neither petition.
Lieberman’s record is that of strong opposition to the Arabs. He resigned as Defense Minister over what he thought was a tepid response to Gazan terror, and he has proposed the trading of a triangle within Israel made up of numerous Arab communities to the West Bank in exchange for the areas of major Jewish settlements. In various comments recently, he has opposed joining a government that also includes the Democratic Union, or what became of Meretz.
We’ve also heard mention about the President pardoning Netanyahu of his crimes, on condition that he leave politics. This reminds us of a deal offered to President Moshe Katsav, softening the charge of rape. He rejected the deal, went to trial, and afterward to jail.
At the present time, the prospect of Bibi resigning and leaving office seems in direct contradiction to his loud campaign against the police, prosecutors, and media. Bibi’s own appointee to the position of Legal Adviser to the Government has decided to indict him, and Bibi’s appointee as Justice Minister has raised his voice in favor of his appointing a replacement for a senior prosecutor who will retire.
So we seem to be stuck with Bibi, just as we’re stuck with Lieberman. Both are making a lot of noise, and keeping us from the formation of a government and seemingly headed toward another election.
Israeli law gives ministers an opportunity to ask the Knesset for legal immunity prior to their trial. Another problem is the condition of transition governments and the Knesset, without full power. There’s no capacity of the Knesset to establish a committee that would consider the Prime Minister’s request for immunity.
So, at the present, it’s impossible to guess when Bibi’s trial might commence. And with more than 300 witnesses on a list compiled by the prosecutor, it’s also difficult to imagine how long such a trial will take. A year or two? Then an appeal to the Supreme Court?
So, if subsequent elections continue to produce a near tie between the major groupings, Bibi may be with us indefinitely as a transitional Prime Minister.
Lieberman meanwhile continues to talk, seemingly confused, and says he is unable to join either a right-wing government with the ultra-Orthodox, or a center-left government supported by the Arabs.
Polls indicate that Lieberman’s support is likely to decline in a third election. His Russians are aging, and others who supported him may be tiring of his talkative opposition to one and all options.
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Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com