JERUSALEM — Bibi waited until the last prime time television spot before the deadline, to announce that he was applying for immunity.
The day earlier, one of the news shows replayed an earlier statement that he had no intention of applying for immunity.
Immediately after Bibi announced, Benny Gantz began his election campaign, indicating that it would focus on an alleged criminal, running for yet more time at the top of the government.
What comes now is not clear. Commentators are all over the map.
Some indicate that the law dealing with immunity is meant to protect a Knesset Member’s action as a Knesset Member, and not to protect him from alleged illegalities outside the framework of Knesset speeches and actions.
Others continue the message of Gantz, indicating that Blue and White will emphasize the Prime Minister’s criminality in the run for office.
Yet others repeat the claims of the Prime Minister, indicating that an organization of police, prosecutors, and media have faked the facts, or at least exaggerated them. And that in reality there is nothing that will stand the questioning of a court.
Also in the field are old Likudniks, past ministers in one government or another, who indicate that they are not supporters of Netanyahu.
What comes next is not all that clear. Will the present Knesset organize itself in order to consider Bibi’s application? Or will the head of Knesset act against such a process?
And all grants of immunity are temporary, extending only to the end of the Knesset that grants it.
But with Lieberman indicating that he’ll oppose a grant of immunity, it seems that Bibi’s application will go nowhere.
But if it’s not considered in this Knesset, at least it will give him another two or three months as Prime Minister until that next Knesset begins to operate.
Betting is that it was not a good choice for Netanyahu, except for extending his present rule. Guesses are that perhaps four Knesset seats will move elsewhere, as his supporters abandon him.
This will be the first vote that comes after Bibi’s hearings, and the Legal Adviser to the Government’s decision to extend the indictments for bribery, fraud, and misuse of power.
And it looks like a shape up between Bibi and Donald. Both accused of improprieties or worse, and both waiting the next step .
Actually, Bibi is in worse shape. Donald seems likely to escape a guilty verdict in the Senate, and so far there is no Democratic candidate likely who has the charisma and/or age to defeat him in the Electoral College.
Bibi seems destined for court, sooner or later, with a strong case against him.
Yet he also has support. From a similar group that supports Trump. Its the lower income and education cluster of Israelis from Middle Eastern backgrounds who provide the equivalent of working class Whites who are the basis of Trump’s constituency.
So far, Israel suffers from the lack of a Knesset that can legislate budget increases needed for health, education, transportation, and defense. Those who suffer most are the lower income Israelis without access to private insurance, or enough funds to provide their kids with add-ons to what they get in school. Various groups, including the young and aged, needing care have been left without. And we all suffer from traffic jams, as well as worries about what the security services need to deal with Iran and its allies.
All this because of Bibi, and his insistence on prioritizing his own defense, cursing all those against him, and claiming great accomplishments as the result of his rule.
The Supreme Court has decided not to consider, at the present time, the case against a Prime Minister under indictment, and whether he can receive a mandate to extend his term. The Court has decided that the case is theoretical. It’ll wait on the elections, and see if Bibi has a chance to be selected as the next Prime Minister. Then it may re-enter the case and make a decision.
Such a decision keeps the Court away from a hole in the present law, and it avoids pre-empting a political decision by the electorate. Two months from now, if the issue presents itself, there’ll be an opportunity for the Court to intervene.
Maybe.
The media’s fascination with issues of immunity got a rest with the US strike that killed Qassim Suleimani, and seemed to re-enter with force into the Middle East. Why? On account of an earlier Iranian attack on Saudi oil facilities? Or a recent Iranian-led attack on the US Embassy in Iraq? Or in response to who knows what?
It belies Trump’s numerous claims to have downsized US involvement in the region, and may provoke an onset of who knows where it’ll end.
In the short run, it brought Bibi home early from a gas-singing venture with Cyprus and Greece in Athens, presumably so that he could be on hand in response to whatever happened. It also led to a closing of the Mt Hermon ski resort to visitors, right after a snow storm that seemed likely to crowd the site with Israeli families.
Perhaps it shows that Bibi doesn’t trust Naftali Bennett, his already limited Defense Minister. Or more likely meant to distract the media for a weekend focus on his claim for immunity, and the complications caused to Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein, and his capacity to allow or curtail the creation of a Knesset committee to deal with Bibi’s immunity in advance of an election.
We’ll see.
Currently there’s a squabble in the Knesset, between the Legal Adviser to the Knesset, who says that the law permits convening the Committee to consider the Prime Minister’s request for immunity, and the Speaker of the Knesset, a Likudnik who doesn’t want to force an early decision likely to produce a rejection of Bibi’s application. The Speaker has asked for another opinion by the Legal Adviser, as to whether such a Committee must be formed immediately. And Blue White is threatening to unseat the Speaker if he doesn’t go along with the call to create the Committee.
Bibi has appointed four new ministers, to fill the tasks he has been required to leave. One of his appointees is David Bitan, also likely to be indicted, and then required to leave his ministerial post. Which is shaping up is a campaign against the criminal class leading Likud.
While we wait to see how Iran responds to the killing of Qassim Suleimani.
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Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com