JERUSALEM — Our recent headlines have featured the weather. Despite a prediction in the Fall that this would be a relatively dry winter, the last couple of weeks have set a record of rainfall that surpasses anything in the most recent 50 years. Coastal cities of Naharyia, Tel Aviv, Ashdod and Ashkelon have been hit by flooded streets that have washed away cars, and required pedestrians to be carried across flooded streets in the buckets of tractors and in the trucks of the IDF.
A young couple was trapped and drowned in an elevator, on their way to rescuing a car parked in a basement garage. Several others have died when being swept away by raging waters, and many homes and businesses have been flooded, with the contents ruined by the water.
News shows have featured the water and its consequences, and usually wait for some time near the end to catch up on the latest political developments.
At the center has been the clash between the US and Iran, perhaps reaching an impasse after the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, and then Iran’s well aimed and largely ineffective attack against two US bases in Iraq. They might have been moderated by Donald Trump’s indication of having 52 targets in US sights, and moving some B-52s to an Indian Ocean base within striking distance of Iran.
Democrats are working to limit the US President, by requiring congressional approval of any attack against Iran. Among the questions, what will happen to the Republican majority in the Senate when the bill is considered there?
In the midst of it all, the Iranians shot down a Ukrainian airliner, with 176 deaths. Among the results has been a wave of anti-government demonstrations in Iranian cities.
After those bits of news, we’ve heard about the latest in Israel’s political squabbles.
*Bibi has had to put on hold the appointment of four ministers to replace positions he held, due to a case brought to the Supreme Court dealing with one of the appointees being on the edge of an indictment;
* Anti-Bibi forces are pressuring the Chair of the Knesset to convene a committee to consider Bibi’s application for immunity, most likely to be defeated;
That includes threats to replace the Chair of the Knesset, Yuli Edelstein, a Likudnik not wanting to take a decision that will unseat Bibi;
Likudniks are lining up to defend the Chair, and to postpone the consideration of immunity until the next Knesset;
A majority of present Knesset Members have indicated their support for considering immunity now;
Polls are showing something very close to the electoral outcomes of the previous two elections: Blue and White leading Likud, but neither able to form a government; Avigdor Lieberman still holds the balance of power, and so far seems to be insisting on a combination of Blue and White and Likud, but without Bibi;
Both right wing and left wing smaller parties are maneuvering and arguing about combining or running alone, with the results of their maneuvers capable of changing slightly the overall picture.
Time is important. There may or may not be enough to complete consideration of Bibi’s immunity before the next election;
Likudniks are threatening the equivalent of a filibuster, claiming that the Knesset has to consider the legal as well as the political implications of immunity, and lining up appeals to the Supreme Court;
The Legal Adviser to the Knesset has ruled that Edelstein cannot hold up the consideration of Bibi’s immunity;
Edelstein has responded with his disagreement about the issue, but says that he’ll sit aside, and neither act one way or the other on the process of considering immunity.
The Knesset Committee is ready to consider Bibi’s immunity, with a host of suits hoping to keep postponing a decision.
What used to be Meretz and Labor have united for the election, while two right-wing parties remain separate.
Bibi’s situation may change, in time to keep us from a fourth election.
Why is Likud so united in defending Bibi?
Perhaps because he is the only member with the slightest chance of holding together a majority, or near majority of the Knesset, being declared the Prime Minister yet again, and holding on to the jobs for his boys and girls.
They have turned Israeli politics into pro- and anti-Bibi, and threatening to produce conditions to bring about a fourth, fifth, and onward elections, without the capacity of the Knesset to take major decisions to deal with a large financial deficit, or to finance needed programs in health, transportation, education, defense, and other service fields.
We’ve also heard from Lebanese sources of another IDF air attack against Iranian facilities in Syria, which reminds us of the possibility of a retaliation, perhaps again deferred by a worry about a direct Israeli attack on Iran, perhaps joined by the US.
*
Ira Sharkansky, PhD, is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com