PHILADELPHIA, Pennsylvania –“Danger! Danger! Danger!” Jay Sekulow crowed at least three times on Tuesday as he defended President Trump over the impact of his impeachment trial.
The president’s personal attorney could also have been warning Democrats of what a Bernie Sanders nomination might do to their party. Worries that Sanders could jeopardize the party’s standing coincided with the impeachment trial, Trump’s so-called peace plan for Israel and the Palestinians, and the aftermath of the parliamentary elections in Britain.
Just last week, Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson squabbled over poverty during one of their latest confrontations in Britain’s Parliament – more than one month after the mid-December election that shattered the Labour Party’s influence. Is the Democratic Party next?
The first signal was transmitted on Jan. 22 when the Vermont senator outpolled former Vice President Joe Biden by three points among registered voters who are Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents, 27 to 24 percentage points, according to a CNN poll.
It is too early to expect Sanders will be nominated to challenge Trump or another Republican in November, but a Sanders candidacy is being taken seriously. With the Iowa caucuses slated for next week, a group calling itself DMFI PAC is running ads warning that Sanders “is least capable of winning in November and most likely to adopt a hostile attitude toward Israel”; DMFI stands for the Democratic Majority for Israel.
A Sanders presidency could produce fissures in the Democratic Party because of drastic economic changes he may seek plus fears about his approach to Israeli policy, but I doubt if Labour’s disaster will be repeated here.
Corbyn’s party suffered massive losses in the parliamentary elections, prompting Labour’s leader to announce his impending resignation as its leader for the same reasons, in addition to his handling of Brexit, Britain’s plan to separate from the European Union. Under Corbyn, Labour became an incubator for England’s anti-Semites.
“We can’t risk a Democratic disaster on election day,” states DMFI PAC in an e-flyer, “costing us not only the presidency but jeopardizing the House, failing to recapture the Senate and hurting countless other down-ballot races.”
Trump thinks he can get acquitted by the Senate, which he probably will, and then get re-elected by smearing Democratic hopefuls and proposing a go-nowhere plan for Middle East peace. So long as Democrats nominate a respected candidate, my firm belief is that Trump will lose while Democrats also recapture the Senate majority and keep its majority in the House of Representatives.
Trump’s only hope is Sanders. He might just beat Sanders, and I even doubt that. Too many voters want Trump out – and that includes more than the 70,000 voters who put him over the top in Michigan, Wisconsin and my state, Pennsylvania.
If Sanders is elected, will the Democrats antagonize voters? Remember that the British and American political systems strongly differ. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who heads the majority Conservative Party in Parliament, can lead on legislation and run the government at the same time. The president does not control Congress. Trump’s alliance with Senate Republicans is only possible with their consent.
A few scenarios roll out if Sanders is president, the first Jewish president who ironically – as it has been noted – has expressed attitudes seen as unfriendly toward Israel. Not only would a Democrat be the chief executive, but the Democratic Party would control both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Sanders would have the power to accomplish everything he wants. Not so fast.
Anyone who believes that Democrats are routinely united is mistaken. Many Democrats in the House and Senate must worry about an assortment of constituents. My fellow Pennsylvanians range from liberals who support anti-poverty programs, civil rights for homosexuals and choice in abortion, to conservatives who think we pander enough to lazy masses, balk at same-sex marriage and cry murder when the word “abortion” is broached.
The Black community bitterly complains of racism and many Whites – especially those in rural areas – are fed up because they claim that Black people still play victim 155 years after slavery ended.
Not to mention Jews and other backers of Israel in Congress who will be wary of whatever Sanders says and does about Israel. Most Democrats in Congress are pro-Israel, but in the event that the party replicates Labour many liberals who support Israel could well seek an alternative.
If they turn Republican, their sheer numbers might force the GOP to become more moderate, which could attract centrist independents who left the party because it became too conservative in the first place. That should send a message to right-wingers like Sekulow: “Danger! Danger! Danger!”
Democrats in Congress must consider their own principles and political standing, and Sanders’s policies do not play well with their constituents in some states and House districts. Does anyone believe that congressional Democrats will move in lockstep with a President Sanders? Republicans get away with this because large numbers of their constituents are primarily aligned in ideology. Actor Will Rogers once declared that he does not belong to an organized political party. He was a Democrat.
DMFI’s worry that Sanders cannot oust Trump is justified, but if he wins it would probably be by a more narrow margin than Biden and other candidates regarded as more moderate. After all, Sanders could take most or all of the states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. However, Trump is vulnerable in states like Arizona, Iowa and North Carolina – where more voters could be opposed to Sanders.
A Sanders candidacy can endanger Democratic chances to retake the majority in the Senate. Republicans now hold 53 seats against 45 Democrats and two independents. At least five Republican incumbents are vulnerable. Cory Gardner of Colorado might as well be known as dead-senator-walking while Susan Collins faces a difficult race in Maine as both states now lean Democratic. Doug Jones of Alabama, a Democrat, is also considered vulnerable.
Democrats have opportunities in Arizona, Iowa and North Carolina, all states which Trump won in 2016. Frequently, the winning presidential candidate’s coattails helps House and Senate candidates win. A candidate like Biden might have a better chance of winning any of those states, and we cannot be so optimistic for Sanders’s chances.
We still have months to go before the party nominates a candidate for president, and this is only one poll. Sanders won 27 percent, which means that 73 percent want someone else.
Danger? Trump’s trial outcome is most possible hours after this piece is posted, but our president’s re-election bid is yet nine months away. “Danger!” etc…
*
Bruce S. Ticker is a freelance writer based in Philadelphia. He may be contacted via bruce.ticker@sdjewishworld.com
Due to the fact that the incumbent usually gets re-elected , in addition to many people’s feeling that there is no reasonable alternative in either Sanders or Biden, I believe that Trump will be reeected with a hefty margin.