JERUSALEM — “The Deal of the Century.” It’s a mess.
With some good features, as well as others.
On the good side, it does away with the 1967 lines, outdated by more than 50 years of movement here and there, and kept alive only by Palestinian ideology, which competes with Palestinian ideas tying things to pre-1948.
Except for that, the deal seems to present as many problems as opportunities.
Bibi and his friends are spouting it as the best thing since running water. They are already planning to apply Israeli law, or to annex, the Jordan Valley and Maale Adumim.
Others, including official Americans, are urging patience. Secretary of State Pompeo says that the deal is a vision, subject to change here and there by negotiations.
Jared Kushner says that things will have to wait at least until there is a firm government in place, with many more details ironed out, before Israel can begin a process of nationalizing Maale Adumim and the Jordan Valley.
Right wing Israelis strongly oppose the deal’s commitment to a Palestinian state, and a division of Jerusalem, as well as the provision of several pieces in the Negev alongside the border with Egypt to Palestine. .
There’s also opposition, especially among Israeli Arabs, to the movement of Israeli Arab settlements along the border to Palestine.
There’s a plan afoot, especially among those close to Bibi and to his right, to accept some of the good points and to avoid others.
Americans are saying that it’s a whole package, to be accepted more or less as is, but subject to further work and negotiations.
Palestinian officials are strongly opposed. A number of Arab governments have remained quiet, with vague expressions of support. So far there have been some minor Palestinian upsets and commotion.
Bibi has also engineered the release of Naama Issachar, held in Russia since April and sentenced there to 7.5 years for having a bit of hashish with her during a transit stop from India to Israel in the Moscow airport.
Bibi flew to Moscow from the US, with the intention of reporting to Putin about Trump’s Deal of the Century, and even more so to bring Naama and her mother home to Israel with him.
And we hear that someone close to Bibi is working to bring 400 Falash Mura, or Ethiopians related to those Jews in Israel, all of them prior to the election.
The Falash Mura are a number of Ethiopians, perhaps 8,000, Christians, perhaps former Jews, with confused status, claiming access to Israel via relationships to Ethiopians already in Israel. Some of them have been supported in Ethiopia by organizations hoping for their immigration, but kept there by Israeli formalities. The announced intention to allow entry reflects pressure from the Ethiopian Israeli Knesset Member who moved from Blue and White to Likud, and asserts a closeness to Bibi.
All this amounts to a Bibi campaign to remain Prime Minister. Early polls show an improvement in Likud’s vote , but it’s still less than Blue and White. Both remain without a Knesset majority. Avigdor Liberman holds the balance..
Bibi pressured the Trump administration to release the Deal of the Century when it did, and he has taken advantage of it to propose nationalizing Maale Adumim and the Jordan Valley. He also participated in the carnival surrounding Naama Issachar’s jailing and release. She is not the only Israeli held captive for one crime or another in distant countries, but her case became a spearhead, with an active mother spending time in Moscow, apparently guided and funded by individuals with public relations backgrounds, and serving as the target of media coverage from all the networks. And being savaged by some media people as well as participants in social media.
One can feel sorry for the poor young woman, given a large sentence for a small amount of hashish, seemingly taken advantage of by the Russians and then by Bibi, who now finds herself the darling of the media and wondering about the rest of her life.
In sum, all the booms seem to be the work of Bibi, meant to strengthen himself toward the election
And now Bibi is without judicial immunity, and has been charged in a Jerusalem court.
At this point there’s another month to the election, and there is an argument that a charged Bibi cannot remain–or run–as Prime Minister.
Does this open the possibility of a movement in Likud to replace Bibi as leader, and to accept a coalition with Blue and White? With or without the support of Liberman?
We’ll see. There are lots of possibilities.
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Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D, is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com