JERUSALEM — It’s been a while since Bibi pressed Trump to release his Deal of the Century. As we’ve heard from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Jared Kushner, it’s more a vision than a concrete plan. Somewhere at its heart are several basic ideas, such as Israeli expansion and the creation of a Palestinian state. However, there is a lot of detail to work through, most likely by negotiations before anything major can occur.
However, Bibi’s base, more than Bibi himself, has seized on the elements favorable to them and are urging unilateral Israeli expansion. Depending on who’s talking, it’s a formal acquisition of the Jordan Valley, Maale Adumim, Gush Etzion, Ariel, and other settlements. Bibi has wavered between encouraging this kind of talk, saying that he’d do it this week or next, and saying that he needs the support of the Americans to do it.
His promises to expand Israeli controls this week or next ring hollow, given his occasional calls over the previous years of his position as Prime Minister, and not doing anything of the kind.
For the Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, it’s been an occasion for inciting mass demonstration against the Deal, insofar as it violates his own Dream of the Century. That is, something built on the lines of 1967, with a capital in Jerusalem and a right of return home for refugees from the wars of 1948 and 1967, plus their children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren etc etc. He’s also threatened to end security cooperation with Israel, but his security forces have largely ignored that. Cooperation helps both parties, Abbas no less than Israelis. Mass demonstrations have failed to occur. In part, perhaps, because Palestinians see Abbas as a tired old man, out of touch with Arab governments elsewhere and the current realities of 2020.
However, there has been an increase in terror attacks, three or four last Thursday, encouraged by Hamas and its allies in Gaza, or perhaps produced in response to killings of individual Palestinians by Israeli security personnel. Among the terrorists have been several Israeli Arabs and Arabs living in East Jerusalem. Their actions indicate the potential for violence that is always among us, which can be triggered by who knows what, and renders this an always tense place.
And from Gaza, there have been several days of rocket and mortar attacks, and lots of balloons with explosives attached. Plus Israel Air Force attacks, mostly with damage, but few if any injuries.
Our media features the pressures on children and adults living close to the borders of Gaza, and having to worry about the prospect of violence. We hear of programs to help in the schools and homes, and some families have left the region.
Meanwhile, the expected has occurred in the US Senate, with Republicans united, except for Mitt Romney, in voting to acquit Trump of what the Democrats charged. And the onset of the presidential campaign of the Democrats, that got off to a sputtering start in Iowa, with delayed reporting of results. With almost all the votes finally counted, it looks like Pete Buttigieg got 13, delegates Bernie Sanders 12, Elizabeth Warren 8, and Joe Biden 6.
Buttigieg has Harvard and a Rhodes Scholarship at Oxford under his belt. He’s a military veteran, decorated for service in Afghanistan, as well as being mayor of South Bend, Indiana. He’s gay, and 30-40 years younger than his major rivals for the Democratic nomination and the President of the United States.
Will being gay hurt more than it helps? It’s still a way to the election. No doubt that Trump and his Evangelicals will get the issue out in the public if Buttigieg moves toward becoming the Democratic candidate.
Here Bibi has spoken about bringing the issue of his immunity to the next Knesset. By some views, he’s had his chance, and now must wait for the trial to begin. Late next year?
His meeting with Sudan’s President may have something to do with that country’s helping to bring materials from Iran and shipping them into Egypt and Gaza. So far there’s been commotion within Sudan about the meeting, so who knows what will come of it?
Latest polls show no significant change from the past election. It’s not clear if the President, or the Supreme Court, will allow Bibi to be named Prime Minister, given the court cases already begun against him.
Minister of Aliyah and Integration Yoav Galant (a retired General in the IDF) is criticizing Defense Minister Bennett, who joins a long line of Defense Ministers who previously criticized the existing Defense Minister for not acting forcefully against Gaza, then refused to act forcefully when they become Defense Minister.
And Bennett and Bibi supporters are quarreling about the imposing of Israeli law on areas of the West Bank. Bennett wants it now, while Bibi’s people urge waiting until after the election.
US Ambassador David Friedman, usually outspoken in support of settlers, has weighed in against an immediate expansion of Israel. In effect, he has reduced the Deal of the Century to a vague plan, requiring further work and lots of negotiation.
A split in the right?
What Bibi has produced by pressing for the release of a half-baked proposal has not been positive.
From the beginning, it was clear that the Palestinian leadership would not accept it.
And it has produced an outpouring of extremism from both Israelis and Palestinians. The results have been low level violence, with several Israeli injuries, some serious, and several Palestinian deaths. There’s also been a hardening of export controls over agricultural products from Palestinians to both Israelis and over the river to Jordan, as well as controls over Israeli agricultural exports to Palestine. And Mahmoud Abbas planned to excite his audience in the Security Council of the UN.
Much better was the status quo ante. It was vague in its outlines and flexible, good for both Palestinians and Israelis, and with a minimum of violence. It provided substantial Palestinian autonomy in the West Bank, without a need for Israeli provision of education and welfare, plus a lot of cross border commerce, and reasonable cooperation between Israeli and Palestinian security personnel.
When can we consign the Deal of the Century to the closet of history, and get back to where we were?
It may take a while.
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Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D, is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com