Sanders has short coattails, if any at all

By Bruce S. Ticker

PHILADELPHIA, Pennsylvania — Possibly our first Jewish president, and already Americans are panicking.

This sigh of relief: Democratic leaders and others are raising concerns about an overreaching agenda and a misguided approach to Israel, not over his religion or ethnicity. It looks like that, anyway.

We must face it – the election of a President Bernie Sanders could become a reality. It is yet too soon to predict the outcome, but this one result is foreseeable: Sanders will confront an adversarial Congress, if not a hostile Congress.

It does not matter if Democrats or Republicans control Congress. I cannot imagine the vast majority of senators or members of the House of Representatives accepting his entire domestic agenda, an expansive array of proposals which until this week was unaccompanied by a price tag. Democrats will demand compromise and Republicans no doubt will block most of his policy proposals.

Few of them will tolerate hostility to Israel. Most Democrats and Republicans in Congress support Israel despite the outsized clamor from a miniscule number of Democratic House members who blame Israel for all Palestinian woes. Even Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez concedes that she has few allies in Congress who are known as “progressives.” For the most part, antagonism toward Israel seems to be a prerequisite for acceptance as a progressive.

If Democrats hold onto the House and retrieve control of the Senate, Sanders cannot rely on party loyalty. A President Sanders will not enjoy the privileges of President Trump, whose national base is larger proportionately. Democrats in Congress will not scrape and bow to his every whim. They will need to answer to their constituents, who are generally more diverse since Republicans represent more uniformly conservative white districts.

Sanders could get elected and his presidency has the potential to be productive. I do agree in principle with his social concerns. Maybe we can do without a revolution, but our society needs a do-over to provide greater equity for all Americans. At this stage, Sanders sounds like he will shoot for the moon and achieve nothing.

There is legitimate room for criticism of Israel, but I cannot take seriously the distorted verbal attacks of these progressives who support Sanders.

Trump will get what he wants if Sanders is nominated, but our current president should be careful what he wishes for. Sanders may prove a weaker challenger than Democrats like former Vice President Joe Biden, but Trump would be foolish to underestimate him.

Equally worrying are the chances for Democrats to maintain control of the House and win enough Senate seats to gain a majority. If Sanders is nominated, they will have even more difficulty maneuvering in the congressional elections.

Perhaps there is a way. A modest suggestion: Democrats running for Congress, both incumbents and newcomers, could run a separate, nationwide campaign independent of the Sanders operation.

The historic “coattails” pattern – in which a presidential candidate inspires straight party-line voting – will likely be of no benefit. Obviously, there will be no coattails where Sanders loses states and congressional districts, and down-ballot candidates cannot rely on Sanders’ coattails where he does win.

While Congress was established as a check and balance, there has been no consistent practice of this principle. It would help Democratic candidates to make their independence a dominant issue. They must stress they will vote what they deem best for their constituents and the nation – not for their political party or a president of the same party.

It is curious that Democratic candidates would need to address something so fundamental. Both parties are guilty of violating this tenet, and the Republicans have a far worse record in this regard.

Asserting this constitutional obligation is required to reassure voters that they are serious about running our government in an equitable manner. They will work with the president whether his name is Trump or Sanders, and they will decide how to vote without fear or favor of their president whether his name is Trump or Sanders.

Candidates can decide on their own if they support Sanders’ nomination or whether they are willing to campaign for him and want his help.

That approach can only help Democrats keep the House and win the Senate majority, which will require a net win of four Senate seats if Trump is re-elected and three seats if a Democrat ousts Trump. A tie vote of 50-50 can be broken by the vice president.

Democrats have a reasonable chance of retaking the Senate with their best opportunities in Colorado, Maine, Arizona, Iowa and North Carolina; Democratic Sen. Doug Jones is imperiled in Alabama. Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado is a sure goner while Sens. Susan Collins, Maine, and Martha McSally, Arizona, are extremely vulnerable.

Sen. Joni Ernst gave away the Republican game plan when she declared she hopes Iowa Democrats paid attention to Biden’s links to Ukraine as repeated during the impeachment hearings. She might think about paying attention to the defeat of two Republican House members in 2018, bringing the number of House Democrats in Iowa up to three. The only GOP House member from Iowa who is left narrowly survived 2018.

Sen. Thom Tillis represents a state, North Carolina, which has rotated between Democrats and Republicans in state offices in past years. There are remote prospects for Senate spots from other states, including Kansas and Georgia, but it is not advisable to count on those states.

In the presidential election, most Democratic candidates stand to win at least 275 electoral votes – five above the required 270 electoral votes – if they take all states won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 plus two of the three large states (Pennsylvania and Michigan) that unexpectedly went to Trump.

Sanders lacks that advantage. Who knows what voters in those states will do if he is nominated? Let’s assume that Sanders is elected president after winning all those states. Could he take other states like Iowa and Arizona and help his fellow Democrats seeking Senate seats? Of course, we cannot safely predict if any of the other presidential contenders win Iowa, Arizona or North Carolina, but it appears that they have a much better chance than Sanders and, with it, two extra Senate seats that will leave Democrats with the majority.

As mentioned previously, Democrats need to win four of those states if they take the White House while Jones loses his re-election bid in Alabama. If Democrats cannot win those Senate seats because of Sanders, then the next president’s progress will be limited by virtue of a Republican majority of 51-49.

After all that.

 

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Bruce S. Ticker is a freelance writer based in Philadelphia.  He may be contacted via bruce.ticker@sdjewishworld.com