JERUSALEM — Election night was a time for Bibi to declare a big victory. Likud outpolled Blue and White, but Likud plus its right wing block didn’t make it to 61 seats.
Final results look like this
Likud 36 seats
Blue White 33 seats
United Arab List 15 seats
SHAS 9 seats
United Torah Judaism 7 seats
Meretz-Labor 7 seats
Israel Our Home (Lieberman) 7 seats
Yamina (Bennett, Shaked, Peretz, Smotrich) 6 seats
Add them up. Bibi and his right wing allies get 58 seats.
They’re still claiming victory over the Zionist parties. But the greater reality is that the Center-Left has 62 seats.
Currently Blue and White, along with the United Arab List, Meretz-Labor and Israel Our Home is proposing legislation that will forbid an indicted individual from being named Prime Minister, and another that will limit an individual to two terms as Prime Minister.
Bibi’s criminal trial will begin this week.
There are several open questions.
Who will the President name as the first individual to form a government?
If that’s Gantz–and now there’s an appeal to the Supreme Court against Bibi as well as those pieces of legislation– will he succeed in going with the support of the United Arab List and the participation of Israel Our Home?
If so, it’s all over. Bibi will retire to become the most prominent accused in the country, and Israel will move ahead to have a real government.
This may take awhile to implement. Lieberman, the head of Israel Our Home, is on record as opposing cooperation of any kind with the United Arab List. So is Gantz. But things change. Politics here as well as elsewhere is the Art of the Possible.
The Knesset Members of the United Arab List, as well as those of Blue and White and Israel Our Home will have to come around to this arrangement.
And meanwhile, we’re hearing cat calls from Likudniks, rather than any indication that the party is about to consider who’ll come after Bibi.
And we’re in the midst of a Caronavirus onset. Perhaps 100,000 Israelis have been mandated to two week confinement at home, and major air carriers have cancelled all their flights to Israel.
Palestinians as well as Israelis are coping with the disease, brought here by overseas visitors and Israelis returning from elsewhere.
So far the outbreak in Israel has been mild, and the governmental response tough.
We’ll see what happens, both in politics and in health. As well as economically. Our stock market has dropped, along with those elsewhere. It was at its all time high, and due for a correction, but this one has been large. We’re wondering about international supplies of products, as well as who is able to work here and elsewhere.
It won’t be easy to produce a government that includes support, but not participation, by the United Arab List.
Bibi has given an angry, racist speech, in which he denied the legitimacy of the Arab vote, and accused Blue and White of stealing an election by lies and deception.
And Bibi’s own record of fudging realities and changing his mind has been prominent in the media.
Individual Knesset Members of Blue and White are opposing any working with the United Arab List. And the United Arab List is talking about the demands it will make before giving its support to an agreement. The United Arab List isn’t all that united. One of its partners, with three members, opposes any cooperation with the Zionists.
Those hoping for a united government, with both Likud and Blue and White together, must reckon with the stubborn retention of control by Bibi. He shows no signs of giving up his control of Likud as well as its right wing block of the ultra-Orthodox and Yamina.
First up is the President’s interviews with the heads of all parties, and then his decision as to which individual will get the first call. And then a month for that individual’s efforts to sort out the possibilities.
It won’t be easy. On the one hand is the stubbornness of Bibi. And on the other is the possibility of a fourth election. In the middle are several other demands, seemingly contradictory. Resolving them will take political skill, on all sides.
A couple of days ago, we were poised to hear that all arrivals from other countries would be quarantined. The Prime Minister led off with an awkward speech in which he mentioned technological advances, along with the United States, and ended with a confused indication that there would be no decision that day about quarantining arrivals from the United States.
We also know that professionals in the Ministry of Health are pressing for the quarantining of arrivals from everywhere.
Bibi sounded like he was afraid of upsetting his friend, Donald Trump. Politics above health? Seemingly so.
Now, a week or so after professionals in the Health Ministry called for it, the Prime Minister has decided that arrivals from all countries, including the USA, must quarantine themselves for two weeks.
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Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com