JERUSALEM, Israel — What is its future of Palestine?
Who knows?
Both the UAE and Bahrain have aligned themselves to Palestinian interests, but we can wonder how serious that is.
European governments still adhere to a two-state solution, but how central are their concerns?
American politicians also indicate their adherence to a two-state solution, but where does it sit in their various commitments?
Israeli leftists worry about occupation, but the Labor Party has all but disappeared, Meretz is tiny; and there is no other party to attract the leftists.
As part of the deals with the UAE and Bahrain, Netanyahu had to put off the issue of annexing parts of the West Bank, and perhaps expanding settlements there.
And while the Foreign Minister of the UAE was giving his White House speech applauding peace between Arabs and Israel, Gazan activists sent missiles toward Ashkelon and Ashdod. One man was severely injured, and several others affected more lightly.
In response to Israeli actions that came after those hits, there was another wave of missiles.
Palestinian leaders of the West Bank urged protests against the deals with the UAE and Bahrain, but very little came as a result.
President Mahmoud Abbas is in the 15th year of a four-year term. Yet he’s widely recognized as the West Bank leader.
Hamas is in nominal control of Gaza, but one can doubt its capacity to actually control the occasional outbursts directed against Israel.
The two parts of Palestine have no actual accords. They sometimes express similar thoughts about Israel, but are intense opponents.
When Israel enters Palestinian parts of the West Bank, it often does so against activists of Hamas or some other organization opposed to Abbas, usually with some degree of support or toleration by Palestinian security forces.
Public opinion polls show the weakness of Abbas. He’s well over 80, and has made no noticeable provision for a successor.
Qatar has not indicated any sign of joining the UAE and Bahrain in normalizing relations with Israel, but it plays a role along with Israel and Egypt in keeping Gaza reasonably quiet. It’s the principal source of outside funds, paying $100 per family who qualifies every few months.
Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke in favor of a Palestinian state years ago, and occasionally mentions the need to open relations with Palestine. However, the notion of a statehood seems far from the actual discourse that occurs in Israel.
And–leaving aside the period of Coronavirus–something like 100,000 West Bank Palestinians and perhaps 5,000 Gazans have worked legally in Israel, traveling back and forth on a daily basis.
Commerce flows to and from West Bank Palestine through Israeli ports, with Israeli authorities collecting taxes levied by Palestinians, and transferring the funds to Palestinian authorities.
Except for occasional hold ups of moneys for purchases made in Israel, and to counter the funds paid by Palestinians to the families of those killed or imprisoned as terrorists.
Israel also provides fuel and other necessities to Gaza.
Israeli Shekels are the principal means of financial exchange in both the West Bank and Gaza.
Israeli hospitals treat individual Palestinians, who suffer conditions not treatable in West Bank or Gazan hospitals.
And we see a few cars on Israeli roads with Palestinian license plates.
Occasional violence from Gaza, and individual attacks in the West Bank reflect a lack of central control. There are many factions, and more individuals who fester with hate of Israel. But no strong central authorities to keep control. There are occasional efforts by the reputed central authorities to encourage violence– either by letting it happen with media encouragement, or the payment of pensions to families of those killed or imprisoned by Israel.
Palestinian myths insist on the borders of 1967, or sometimes those prior to 1948, with a capital in Jerusalem. Some insist on the return of refugees and their families from homes abandoned in 1948 or 1967. To where, in the cases of homes that no longer exist? And for whom, in the case of Palestinian families that have multiplied over the generations?
It’s not likely that Israelis will leave areas of the West Bank, or make room for more Palestinians claiming residence in what is now Israel.
With the spread of settlements, there are no clear borders. Indeed, that was the intention of Israeli authorities who permitted settlement. Confusion and a multiplicity of Jews would foil the intentions of those hoping for a Palestinian State.
Yet the continued demands of Palestinians, and the continued expressions of support from elsewhere keep the issue open, at least to some extent.
How serious are those who express what others call the myth of a Palestinian State with the borders–let’s say–of 1967?
And is what has been created best called Israel occupation? Anomalies? Quasi-independent regions less than a State?
How long can the situation last?
Sooner or later Abbas will disappear.
Then what?
Who knows?
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Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com