JERUSALEM — The big political event of the week was the announcement by Gideon Sa’ar that he was leaving Likud, and forming a new party,
Sa’ar has a long history in Israeli politics. He was in the Knesset from 2003, Minister of Education, then Minister of Interior. He left then returned to the Knesset, challenged Bibi in a Likud primary, and lost. Then Bibi kept him out of the government and any Knesset committee seats. Now he’s resigned again from the Knesset, and Likud, and hopes to be Prime Minister. Instead of Bibi.
Polling that came immediately after his announcement found that his party–so far without a name or a list of candidates–would win 20 seats. taken from all right of center or centrist parties, including Likud. According to that poll, Bibi could not form a government after an election.
So one guess is that Bibi, and Gantz, will manage to work together and avoid an election, which both would lose. They’ll have to pass a budget this month, or the Knesset will end and there’ll be an election.
Yet Gantz is hedging. Another guess is that he’s had enough of Bibi.
So far Sa’ar has collected a couple of Knesset members who have been on the edge of Blue and White, with their own party that would not make it into the Knesset. And he’s talking to others. If there is an election, there would probably be a shake up of several parties and a new coalition running for votes.
And more recently, Bibi and his friend Trump have announced the normalization of diplomatic relations with Morocco. Bibi kept Gantz and the Foreign Minister in the dark about recent maneuvers. However, the Americans informed them of what was happening.
And the Foreign Ministry (Blue and White) managed to form diplomatic relations with Bhutan.
It’s not easy to gauge the postures that Sa’ar would take if he gained power. He’s been to the right of Bibi, while Bibi has behaved as a centrist, willing to waver for votes, and holding off decisive actions in Gaza and unlimited expansion in the West Bank.
Sa’ar could also be a politician, willing to go where there are votes. Currently his main tact is anti-Bibi. That plays well. A majority of Israelis have indicated their opposition to Netanyahu. Three indictments and weekly demonstrations, plus poll results indicate that Bibi’s political future is dim. Yet a plurality of Israelis continue to favor Bibi as the preferred Prime Minister.
Bibi’s record in foreign affairs is impressive, especially with his ally Donald Trump in the White House. But that’s coming to an end. And Bibi’s record as a manager of Coronavirus is dismal. He’s bended and waved in response to pressures, and the result is a confusion of a flexible effort to keep this open, and to close that; to announce a closing, and then to change in response to pressures at government meetings.
It’s not clear how Sa’ar would act with respect to the West Bank, Gaza, and a whole range of issues involving Israel’s religious or nationalist identity. Where would he put Israel’s budget? What’s his position on social policies, including medical care? Would he bend to accept demands of the ultra-Orthodox, or coalesce with the anti-Haredi Lapid and Lieberman?
So far Naftali Bennett has not indicated his posture with respect to aligning with Sa’ar, or perhaps Bibi. Yifat Shasha-Biton is an articulate Likud party member who has staked out individual postures, and she is one likely candidate to join Sa’ar.
There are also questions about Moshe Ya’alon and Gadi Eisenkot, both former heads of the IDF. Ya’alon has been with Lapid and Eisenkot is still deciding whether or not to enter politics. They could both go with Sa’ar.
So far no Likudniks–except Sa’ar–have bolted the party. But there are signs that several Knesset Members are worried about Bibi. So we’re wondering if Sa’ar will end Bibi’s career, by working with someone else to select a Prime Minister. And without the position of Prime Minister, Bibi would be even more exposed to the judicial process and his three indictments.
Lots of scenarios. Politics being what it is, we’re left to wonder.
As well as what Trump is up to. He’s moved heavy bombers close to Iran. Is there enough time in his presidency for him to end that country’s nuclear aspirations?
Bibi is boosting the onset of vaccinations against Coronavirus As if he managed, by himself, to assure a supply of the vaccine to Israel. It’ll start next week, or even later this week. Bibi and several other politicians have indicated their willingness to be the first. Will that help him in the Knesset? And among the voters?
And the Electoral College has selected Joe Biden.
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Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D., is a professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. he may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com