JERUSALEM — Less than three months to the election, there are clear signs that things are changing. New parties; individual activists, some abandonment of Likud; lots of anti-Bibi.
The major new players are Gideon Sa’ar, Naftali Bennett, Ofer Shelah, Ron Huldai, and Gadi Eizenkot. Shelah has left the party of Yair Lapid, Huldai is the Mayor of Tel Aviv-Yafo, Eizenkot is a former head of the IDF.
We’re hearing of potential alignments of the right and left, but those terms aren’t meaningful. The rightists are said to be concerned to annex parts of the West Bank, but the chances of that happening, against the wishes of the United States and others, is remote. Leftists are identified with something called socialism and alignment with Israeli Arabs, but the chances of significant movement on those dimensions is remote. Israel already provides substantial welfare aid, including nearly full medical coverage, and the chances of movement on the issue of Palestine is remote in the extreme.
We’re left with symbolic identities, more concerned with how the politicians and their followers feel, than anything substantial.
Polls are showing that the Labor Party can’t pass the threshold required to enter the Knesset. It’s chief, Amir Peretz, has said that he will leave that function and perhaps retire from politics. And perhaps from his intentions to be elected President of Israel.
What parties will form, to the right and left, and who will lead them, and who might align with who, and who with Bibi?
Bibi has supporters, saying–among other things–that all politicians are crooks. So far it seems that he can’t form a coalition with the parties polling close to him. Likud may continue to fall apart in the period prior to the election. Yet Bibi’s a crafty politician, and it’s too early to count him out.
Blue and White and its leader Benny Gantz, seem to be finished. The party is polling just ahead of the threshold to enter Knesset, and several members are leaving and looking for other homes. There’s also an ugly story about Blue and White Knesset Members pressuring Health Ministry personnel to free them from isolation, brought about by their being close to a Knesset Member found to be infected.
Who would want to comply with the lockdown when those determining its extent do what they can to avoid control?
Shelah, Huldai, and perhaps others will attack Bibi from the left. Maybe in one party, but maybe not. Sa’ar will attack him from the right. He’s recently attracted Ze’ev Elkin and others from Likud, and his party has polled above 20 Knesset seats. Elkin had been close to Bibi, but he’s come out strongly against him, saying that Bibi’s putting his personal interests ahead of a concern for the nation. Elkin has changed parties before, and he’s currently one of the government’s fictional Ministers, said to be concerned with Water and Higher Education. Naftali Bennett attacks Bibi, and is running to head Israel’s government, but he’s not ruled out aligning with Likud and Bibi.
Currently it’s a mess, and we’ll have until the 23rd of March to sort things out and decide who to support.
Now we’re in our third major lockdown, that includes closing of travel between cities, supposedly keeping us within a kilometer of our homes, and forbidding us from entering other homes. Schools remain open for grades 1-3, and partly open for the highest grades of high school. But that’s become a political football, between the Health Ministry that wants grades closed, or taught via Zoom, and politicians who are working to keep them open. There’s a limitation on the functioning of public transportation, a closure of shopping malls and other shops except for those selling food or medicines.. We’re also in the midst of vaccinations, and expecting that Israelis will tell cops stopping them that they’re on their way to a vaccination. A coalition government decides things on a combination of recommendations from the Health Ministry and lots of politics. None of us are expecting high compliance with this lockdown. It comes amid an increase in infections, but avoids targeting populations that are especially vulnerable.
Bibi’s trial is scheduled to begin in February. So he’ll be running for another term as Prime Minister while sitting in court. Yet he’s challenging the process, both the charges against him and the judges assigned to hear his case. Speculation is that the trial may be delayed.
Again, “We’ll see” is an appropriate conclusion, wiser than speculating who’ll form alliances on the left and right. The whole picture is confused, except for the prominent feature of being pro-Bibi, anti-Bibi, or–like the ultra-Orthodox–remaining silent and waiting for the results in order to see who they may support. .
Meanwhile, the country on the other side of the Atlantic has a President resisting the results of the election, sowing discord, and somehow hoping for a turnover of the voting results.
Wow!!
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Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University in Jerusalem. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com