Election math doesn’t favor Bibi, or anyone else

By Ira Sharkansky

Ira Sharkansky

JERUSALEM — Israeli politics has too many parties. A coalition government is always necessary. Now, however, the polls are indicating a tie, more or less.

Bibi doesn’t have it. He may not get to 61 Seats in the Knesset, even if Bennett joins with him.

On the other side, there is a problem of plurality, egos, and a false spectrum of right and left wing parties.

It’s false because none of the ideologies is reachable. Right wing parties seem dedicated to a Jewish state and the absorption of more of the West Bank. But the international scene, and especially the United States, would not agree to any serious annexation. And there is no conceivable way to rid Israel of more than 20 percent of its citizens who are Arab and either Muslim, Christian, or Druze.

It also seems false to avoid accepting the United Arab List into a coalition. The parties there speak in favor of the Palestinians, and a two-state solution with the borders of 1967, but no significant movement is feasible. The politicians can spout what they will, like Bennett and Sa’ar on the other side, but the realities are a continuation of where we are, with some concern for the Palestinians, plus a willingness to accept perhaps 100,000 or more Palestinians working in Israel on a daily basis.

Left wing claims are equally empty. With huge government debt and substantial welfare programs, it is more than doubtful that anything in the direction of greater social action will pass any conceivable coalition.

However, Naftali Bennett seems to ignore those realities. He may be willing to coalesce with Gideon Sa’ar, and perhaps Yair Lapid, maybe Labor, and Blue White, and ?? Meretz. It could take all of that to assure more than 61 Seats. Bennett has recently polled at a measly 11, but he talks as if he will be Prime Minister. Sa’ar meanwhile is polling at 13-14, Lapid at 17-19, Labor at 6, Meretz at 4-5, and Blue White at 4-5.

After the election, we’ll see if Bennett prefers an agreement at less than his aspirations, or a failure to agree and the continuation of Bibi as interim Prime Minister.

Purim was a mess, with large gatherings of the secular, religious, and ultra-Orthodox to celebrate, likely to boost infections in a week or two. The police pretty much let the crowds go on, with young secular Israelis dancing, jumping, and crowding together in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, most without masks. And the Haredim crowded into large halls by their thousands.

The holiday was complicated by Shabbat. Purim is celebrated on one day across Israel, except for Jerusalem, and on the next day in Jerusalem. Except when Shabbat intervenes.

The government declared nighttime lockdowns from Thursday at 20:30 to 05:00 the next day through Saturday. And then postponed a decision about Jerusalem until right before the onset of the Sabbath. Then declared that there would be no buses or trains to Jerusalem on Sunday. With no chance for the religious to plan their Sunday, since they wouldn’t likely hear about the decision until Saturday evening.

Without public transportation, a number of Haredi families walked to Jerusalem, with some of the women pushing baby carriages alongside the busy Route 1.

A substantial portion of the population over the age of 16 has been vaccinated, but perhaps 30 percent are not responding to repeated media efforts. And enough younger people have gotten ill to make us wary of Bibi’s claims to have solved the problem of Covid-19.

Bibi has also moved to send some vaccines overseas in exchange for countries’ political support for Israel. One shipment of 5,000 doses has gone to Honduras, and a symbolic amount to Guatemala, but other shipments have been held up by court challenges.

Joe Biden has ordered an air attack on Iranian-backed militias in Syria.

That pretty much washes up the concern that the Biden Administration would do what is necessary to reaffirm an old agreement with Iran, at the expense of Israel and other American allies in the Middle East.

There are also indications that Biden is unhappy with the Saudi, likely to become head of state, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, due to Bin Salman’s actions in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.

Does this end bin Salman’s status as the producer of a modernized Saudi Arabia, including its relations with Israel?

Uncertainties, both domestically and internationally.

Politics as usual?

Bibi has more to worry about than the rest of us. He seems in control, at present. But not completely. And his trial is scheduled to begin two weeks after the election.

Three indictments on criminal charges, and pressures toward opening a fourth, concerned with the purchase of submarines, in excess of what the Israeli military indicated as its needs, and with Bibi giving his consent to the German firm Thyssen-Krup to provide an advanced submarine to Egypt.

Will the trial last three years, as indicated by some commentators? And how long will Bibi last as Prime Minister?

He’s hoping for a Knesset majority that will vote for what’s called the French option, protecting the sitting Prime Minister from a criminal trial.

That possibility seems remote.

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Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com