By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — Where are we now?
Who knows?
Indications of infections are down. The parties and religious events at Purim do not seem to have produced an increase. Widespread inoculations are the explanation. They work to prevent a spread. So we’re getting ready for a Passover close to normal. Seders with 30 or perhaps 50 members are said to be okay, if there isn’t an increase in infections before then.
International travel is up, but severely limited. Few places accept Israeli documents showing inoculation. Mostly it’s Israelis coming home to vote. A thousand or up to 4,000 a day. Problems in getting transportation for what are essentially one-way flights.
Yet a hiccup in relations with Jordan has postponed a visit of the Prime Minister with the UAE. The Jordanian Prince and first in line to succeed the King was denied entry to Israel, when his pre-arranged security detail turned out to be larger than agreed. Jordanians claim that it was Israel who changed the agreement. A day later, the Jordanians denied fly-over rights to the Prime Minister’s plane.
Analysts are busy trying to figure out what happened and why. The event occurred on a holy day for Muslims, commemorating the ascent of Muhammed to heaven from where there is now the mosque on what for Jews was the site of the Temple.
Jordanians are claiming that Israel denied their Prince his freedom of religion, i.e., to pray at the Mosque.
By another view, Jordan manufactured the crisis, fearful that the Prince’s presence, heavily guarded, would deter other Muslims from praying at the site. A deeper analysis holds that Israel’s relations with other Arab countries has lessened Jordan’s role as an intermediary with Israel, and has caused an escalation of tensions between Amman and Jerusalem.
More recently, Bibi said he was postponing the visit to the UAE in order to visit his wife, hospitalized for appendicitis.
At a point, Bibi considered ending all flights between Amman and Israel, but was dissuaded.
Polls showing next week’s election results are not clear. You can see an update here.
Can the pro- or anti-Bibi forces create a government? Not clear. Likely to be a while after the results are in, while parties move from pre-election threats to actual negotiations. It’s hard to find other issues in the campaign. Party leaders speak here and there, about this and that, but except for being pro- or anti-Bibi, there is no clear message.
The management of the disease is fuzzy and sporadic. What’s open and what remains limited depends on government decisions, often politically inspired. Bibi has posed as the provider of vaccines, but he’s had the help of an efficient collection of Health Providers, the Kupot Holim. It’s been much different from other countries, where we hear of confusion in getting the vaccine to the population. Also, Israel has provided data about a large population to the vaccine providers. The Prime Minister may deserve credit, but less than he’s claiming.
Bibi has also posed as a champion of international affairs. There was to be a prominent pre-election visit to Dubai. And other attempts, frustrated by election control officials seeking some fairness in what could be promoted.
Which parties will coalesce? What about the Arab List? Will Lapid, Sa’ar, or Bennett agree to accept it in a government? What’ll Bennett do about joining Bibi? Bennett has been speaking out of two sides of his mouth. No or maybe. Will he accept Meretz, assuming it passes the threshold? Not clear.
As we move closer to next week’s election, Bibi is targeting Lapid and Bennett; Lapid is targeting Gantz; Bennett remains ambivalent about a pro-Bibi or anti-Bibi posture; Labor is targeting Meretz. Who’s a clear opponent and who’s going to be an ally, and who is trying to get votes from a close party and apparent post-election ally? Lots of confusion.
We’re also hearing plans that–even should there be no decision and Bibi continues as an intermediary Prime Minister, there’ll be enough votes to decide on term limits for a Prime Minister, or that a Prime Minister under indictment can no longer serve as Prime Minister.
Yet there would likely be a case brought to the courts against a personnel law against Bibi.
And there’s an indication that he agreed with Sara that she would have power to screen appointments. But she’s not an official.
In one of his recent campaigns, he ended with a “gevalt” about the Arabs. He said they were bringing their people to the polls in buses. And that his supporters would have to get themselves and others to the polls in order to boost his chances. That wouldn’t work this time, because he’s been appealing to the Arabs, and seems to have enlisted one group that broke off from the United Arab List, to support him. So far, that party is on the verge of polling enough to pass the threshold. And it presents a problem for another of Bibi’s parties, that includes Itamar Ben Gvir, who identifies with the late Meir Kahane and his strong anti-Arab posture.
So where are we?
We’ll have to wait and see. And be patient.
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Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D, is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com