By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — Where are we?
In a political muddle.
President Rivlin said that he had no choice but to give the first opportunity to Bibi, in order to form a government.
That attitude of the President does not seem to conform with the law, which seems to give him complete discretion. That would include passing over a candidate with indictments pending against him. But who am I to quarrel with the President? He doesn’t seem to be close to Bibi, but he may concern himself with various political problems known best to him. Perhaps he wanted to give Bibi the first chance, unlikely to be successful, betting that whoever got the next chance at forming a government would have a better opportunity to succeed.
The legal situation is that the first candidate to form a government having at least 61 votes in the Knesset of 120 members has 28 days to succeed, extendable on the option of the President for another 14 days.
The lack of good feeling between Rivlin and Bibi showed itself in the President’s choice to avoid a typical joint photograph with his candidate, in the setting of the Knesset.
So far, it doesn’t look promising for Bibi. In order to get Knesset approval of whatever government he selects, he needs the party of Religious Zionists, headed by Smotrich and Ben Gvir, both of whom so far refuse to consider sitting in a government that relies on membership, or support from outside by an Arab party. And Bibi also needs the support of the Yamina (Right) party, headed by Naftali Bennett, who continues to sound ambivalent. Bennett most likely wants to trade his meager party support of seven Knesset seats for the job of Prime Minister. However, his right wing affiliation gets in the way of his seeking or accepting the support of an Arab party.
There’s a history of bad blood between Bennett and the Netanyahus, perhaps especially between Bennett and Sara. She’s something of a power behind the throne, said to have control over key appointments supposedly made by her husband the Prime Minister.
In this context, it seems important that Bibi invited Bennett to meet with him, and perhaps Sara, in the Prime Minister’s residence, rather than in the Prime Minister’s Office. It is said to be a first time such a meeting occurred at the residence, and thus was an opportunity for special pressure on Bennett.
So far, it hasn’t produced Bennett’s acceptance, of what seems to have been Bibi’s offer of key appointments and membership for Bennett and other Yamina members in the Likud party.
Bibi also needs an Arab party, the breakaway from the United Arab List, with four Knesset seats, in order to pass the 61 Knesset seats needed to support his government.
In short, the arithmetic is depressing. Bibi needs Bennett, plus the Religious Zionists, plus the small Arab party. But he ain’t got them all.
It doesn’t look more promising for an obvious alternative to Bibi.
A combination of Lapid’s party, Yesh Atid (There is a future), plus Blue and White of Benny Gantz, along with Israel Beitenu (Israel our home) of Avigdor Lieberman, plus New Hope of Gideon Sa’ar, plus Labor, Yamina of Bennett, and Meretz reaches 58 seats in the Knesset. And that assumes that Sa’ar and Bennett would agree to sit with Meretz. Then they’d still need the support of an Arab party, let’s say the Arab Joint List with its six seats in the Knesset.
For that to happen would be difficult, but perhaps not impossible for the parties of Sa’ar and Bennett. So far they are saying no to a combination with Arabs.
In the meantime, we’re also in the midst of holidays. Last week was our Holocaust Memorial Day, and this week is Israel Memorial Day to remember soldiers and civilians who have died as a result of war or terror, to be followed immediately by the happy celebration of Independence Day. Each of these is an opportunity for Bibi and other politicians to speak. Along with endless comments and speculation by the various media personalities associated with our several television and radio outlets. Plus others writing for the various newspapers aligned with left, center, right, religious, ultra-religious, and Arabs.
Again a bit on the law.
If Bibi doesn’t succeed in forming a government during his 28 days, with the possible extension of 14 days, then the President can try the same thing with another candidate. Or he can ask the Knesset to try for some days to find a candidate able to attract a majority. Or that option can come after the President’s second candidate fails in assembling a government that wins Knesset approval.
And if all that doesn’t work, we have another election.
All the while, Bibi is on trial. He’s facing three judges. There are no juries here. They’ve excused him from the need to sit in court and listen to the questioning of witnesses. However, that whole process, plus the likelihood of appeals to the Supreme Court in the event of a conviction, is likely to take at least three years.
All party leaders have said that they oppose going to another election. We are now after our fourth election since 2019, with no significant changes in the results. Likud remains the largest party, but seemingly unable to form a government. Currently Yesh Atid is the second largest, with 17 seats compared to Likud’s 30. But Yesh Atid is equally far from creating a government.
Apparently Bibi is the stumbling block. He is skilled, and has amassed a considerable personal following. But he’s under three serious indictments. Without him, and with someone else leading Likud, that party might either fall from its first place standing, or be able to join with another party outside of its ultra-Orthodox allies.
So as far as we can see, at the present, we’re stuck. Bibi remains in power, but hindered by restrictions imposed by the Legal Adviser to the Government, from making key appointments. Yet he retains the status of government head, with access to the media whenever he wishes to speak and tout his lines of solving our problems with the Covid-19 pandemic and creating new alliances with Arab governments.
How bad is it? How tolerable? Somewhere in between?
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Ira Sharkansky, PhD, is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com