By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — An Arab Knesset Member, affiliated with Meretz, announced that neither Meretz nor the Arab party Ram, would support the government if it attacked Lebanon.
Some days earlier, there was a rocket attack on northern Israel, attributed to a Palestinian group in Lebanon. Apparently, there was no significant damage.
Earlier there had been an interchange, with Israeli aircraft bombing Lebanese sites in response to rocket attacks.
But there was no Israeli response to the latest attack from Lebanon.
Does this reflect the power of the Arabs in the Israeli government, or supporting it, when the government has only a 61 seat majority in the 120 Member Knesset?
Or does it reflect a careful calculation, along–perhaps–with some under the table cooperation with Lebanese.
If it was felt necessary to attack, the government might rely on Likud or the Haredim for support. But this might come at a price that the government would be unwilling to consider.
Neither Israel nor whoever is in charge in Lebanon, most likely Hezbollah, wants an all-out confrontation. The last time this occurred Israel wrecked considerable of what was Hezbollah’s infrastructure, including many homes used as the sites of storing weapons. And Hezbollah has hundreds or thousands of rockets, some of them said to be accurate, which it could let loose against Israeli targets.
Is it a military stand-off? Or the power of Arab’s supporting the Israeli government? Or Israel waiting out an economic and social crisis in Lebanon, and relying on Lebanese factions to calm the Palestinians among them and whoever else might be itching for some warfare.
Also involved are the Iranians, supporters of Hezbollah, as suppliers of their weapons, and wanting some leverage against Israel.
And rocket attacks may have been the work of Hamas, leaning on allies among Lebanese Palestinians, and Iranians, to take some of the heat off of Gaza –assuming the Israelis don’t get the connection, or will wait until punishing Gaza!
Both Israel and Lebanon are small parts of the Middle East, but heavily involved in the region’s complexities.
Lebanon has long been a complex society. It has a substantial Christian minority, with a formal balance in its government. But Hezbollah has existed for decades with–more or less–rule or veto over large parts of the country and public policy (whatever that means in the Lebanese society).
A year ago there was a major explosion in the port area of Beirut, with more than 200 killed, thousands of injured and a great deal of destruction. Most likely it was a Hezbollah arms depot that was not well managed. Currently the economy is a mess, with substantial underemployment and severe shortages of food, energy supplies, medical care, and all the rest. And occasional explosions..
According to an NPR report: ” . . . the World Bank says this country is now in one of the worst economic crises anywhere in the world likely since the 1800s. So there’s massive inflation. Prices are soaring. But people’s salaries are worth a tiny fraction of what they were. Lebanon’s middle class, which used to be large, has just been gutted, . . . You know, for example, I went to this upper-class neighborhood recently and visited this church charity that was giving out food aid. And in line waiting for that food aid, there were people in Mercedes, SUVs, BMWs, all waiting to get rice and cooking oil. And of course, all of this is so much worse for people who were already poor. The United Nations’ children’s agency, UNICEF, says more than 70% of Lebanese now don’t have enough food or enough money to buy food.”
Problems in Syria have produced more than one million refugees in Lebanon, adding to tensions that have seen armed clashes between Christian and various Muslim factions.
The Lebanese society seems ready to explode. And it’s not in Israel’s interest to provide the spark. It may be better to overlook an occasional missile sent most likely by a Palestinian faction, and to hope or expect some Lebanese faction to sit on the Palestinians. And thus avoid something all-out, which would mean thousands of Hezbollah rockets landing in Israel, along with the applause of the Iranian regime.
All this co-exists along with open or decent relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain. other Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, and a number of other Muslim states of Africa.
There’s a lot that us commoners do not know for sure. So I’m guessing and waiting.
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Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com