By Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D
JERUSALEM — Reports are circulating in the Israeli press of protracted negotiations between former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Attorney General Avichai Mandleblit, concerning Netanyahu’s acceptance of a guilty plea for fraud and breach of trust. According to the reports, there would be no mention of bribery, no jail time, but an acceptance of public work for a period of time, and a substantial fine. Holding up agreement is the inclusion of disgrace (קלון), which would prevent Netanyahu from serving in politics for a period of seven years. That would bring him to the verge of 80, and pretty much end his career.
We’re hearing that his family opposes the inclusion of disgrace. And that he is maneuvering in clever ways to reduce the impact on himself and his career of the issue of disgrace, and what each element in the deal will actually mean.
Also in reports, the agreement will not refer to the issue of a submarine deal with the Germans, where Netanyahu has been accused of questionable dealing. Yet there is also moving forward a proposal by the government to appoint a committee of inquiry about that deal, said to be at the peak of double dealing for profit by Israelis. Is this pressure on Bibi to agree with Mandleblit, along with the ingredient of disgrace? Most likely.
There’s lots of speculation about what’s in the deal, and the meaning of each part.
Meanwhile his trial continues, but it’s crawling at the pace of a wounded snail, likely to reach a conclusion at least three years in the distance. That is, if it continues. A plea bargain would cancel the trial.
And there is speculation that a plea agreement, if reached, will produce an upset in the present government. It combines parties from the right to the left, and is held together by its opposition to Netanyahu. If he is out of politics, then what is holding together this fragile government?
The Likud political party will also feel the pressure if Netanyahu leaves. There are several likely candidates to replace him as party head, along with no shortage of support for him. No doubt that support adds to the pressures that he should resist all deals.
There’s also a posture, against Netanyahu, that wants his trial to continue until expected guilty verdicts, and serious jail time.
Also in the wind is a suit by the Netanyahus against former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. He called Bibi, Sara, and son Yair mentally ill. And they are suing him for a sum equivalent to a quarter million dollars!
Olmert has defended himself by saying that he expressed a personal opinion, not a medical diagnosis, but one shared by many in Israel, including physicians who treat the mentally ill. He claims protection by freedom of speech. A judge has urged compromise rather than a judicial ruling, but the issue goes on.
Wow!
Lots of action likely, with no clear end in sight.
No less vulnerable than many others will be Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, whose “party” controls something like six seats in the Knesset. How did he reach the elevated position of Prime Minister? And can he retain his position?
That’s among the questions we’re asking ourselves as Bibi faces the issue of a plea bargain that could produce an exit from the Knesset, and from politics.
It could all take a while for all this to sort itself out. Or it may be settled this week or next, which is the end of the term for the current attorney general.
Whatever, the process of a plea agreement is likely to be shorter than the continuation of Bibi’s trial.
However the end comes, with a bang or a whimper, it’ll mark the end of a public career reaching almost 40 years. He began as Israel’s representative to the United Nations in 1984, was prime minister from 1996 to 1999, and again from 2009 to 2021. Currently he’s leader of an opposition, which is barely short of enough Knesset seats to take office again. Except for the opposition to Bibi, somewhat stronger than the support for Bibi.
We’ll see. Sooner or later.
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Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D., is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com