By Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D
JERUSALEM — The U.S. election results are not final, but a lot closer than projected in pre-election polls. The combination of a Supreme Court decision about abortion and Donald Trump’s prominence provided enough threats to limit the usual non-presidential party’s tendency to lose in mid-term elections.
The projected “red wave” turned into a ripple.
And here the election is final, but the government is not. Benjamin Netanyahu got the president’s nod to form a government, but it will take a while to sort out the claims of rival, yet seemingly aligned parties and Knesset Members for one ministry or another, and for one or another changes in law.
News and commentary are focusing on Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, perhaps leaders of a far right party that is second to Likud in the prospective coalition.
Ben Gvir has been moderating his calls and reputation, distancing himself, somewhat, from Meir Kahane, but still in the focus on warnings and some nastiness from Israel’s president and U.S. officials.
Smotrich has laid claim to either the Defense Ministry or the Finance Ministry. Commentators speculate that he is not likely to get either. Both are very prominent and likely to be wanted by leading Knesset Members of Likud.
Ben Gvir says that he wants the Ministry of Public Security, which would give him considerable say over the police, the prisons, and the treatment of Arabs. He’s been trying to make himself sound like a moderate, different from his postures during the election campaign. Among other things, he no longer wants to deport all Arabs.
He’s the focus of comments by American officials, who are stepping over the line of not minding their own business by commenting on who and how within the Israeli government.
The U.S. will remain Israel’s closest friend and supporter, but Israeli politicians have commented that the Americans should watch their tongues and not meddle so openly in Israeli politics.
Recently Ben Gvir has demanded a change with respect to Reform Jews, taking from them the right to conversions that qualify families to immigrate under the Law of Return.
And the ultra-Orthodox are demanding a severe weakening of the Supreme Court, and its capacity to overturn laws enacted by the Knesset.
We’re already hearing roars from the large majority of non-Orthodox Jews in the United States, speaking of their solid support for Israel, but…
And will Bibi cave to the Haredim with respect to limiting Israel’s courts? And what about his own trial?
Plus Likud Knesset Members demanding key ministries like Finance and Defense, seemingly promised, or nearly promised to the SHAS leader Aryeh Deri and to Smotrich.
Now it looks like the Democrats have firmed up their control of the Senate. But the House of Representatives remains in control by the Republicans. And we can expect something close to a month or even more before the Israeli government has been settled.
Then we’ll wait for a long while to see how each country’s governments and politics manage themselves.
It’ll be months before serious commentators can speak with certainty, then years before those inclined to considering the implications of major decisions can express themselves with any certainty.
Both the U.S. and Israel will have closely divided governments, with more room for dispute than clear decisions.
And we’ll both be watching what happens between Russia and Ukraine. Currently we’re seeing Russian retreats, with continuing quarrels between those worried about a Russian nuclear response, and those more concerned about what’ll happen to Putin.
As well as the U.N., where a majority of nations have voted to put Israel on trial for settling what the Palestinians are claiming as theirs.