By Donald H. Harrison
LA JOLLA, California – Former Knesset member Yohanan Plesner on Monday evening, Sept. 16, said whether a ceasefire is obtained soon may set the course for Israel and possibly the entire Middle Eastern region.
Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, was introduced by Qualcomm co-founder Irwin Jacobs and interviewed by Jewish Federation of San Diego President and CEO Heidi Gantwerk at the Lawrence Family Jewish Community Center.
Describing the current situation in the Gaza War as at an inflection point, Plesner said if Israel can obtain a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza, then it will lead to a ceasefire with Hamas’s Lebanese ally Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border. Part of any ceasefire would include the freeing of the remaining hostages held by Hamas. The ceasefire would also buy Israel some time to repair its alliances, tend to its internal refugees, and give its soldiers and reservists some respite.
If a ceasefire in Gaza cannot be obtained, there will be a negative domino effect, Plesner said. There will be no ceasefire with Hezbollah, meaning an estimated 100,000 Israelis will continue to be displaced from their homes in northern Israel. Sooner or later there will be an escalation of the war with Hezbollah and with Iran or its proxies, Plesner said.
Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, does not want a ceasefire. His goal, Plesner said, is to touch off a general war from the countries and regions surrounding Israel – Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, the West Bank, and Yemen – in which Iran might also participate as it did for the first time with a missile and drone attack on Israel in April.
Some alternative mechanism for obtaining a ceasefire, not dependent on the will of Sinwar, is necessary, Plesner said.
Once the shooting stops, Hamas must be replaced as the governing power in Gaza, possibly by a consortium led by the Gulf States (UAE, Bahrain, and possibly Saudi Arabia) with some involvement of the Palestinian Authority, Plesner said.
However, Plesner cautioned, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a conflict of interest. Once the war is over, he would face a day of reckoning for the government and IDF not being prepared for Hamas’s Oct. 7 invasion of Israel and its mass slaughter and hostage taking of civilians.
Even if Netanyahu decided to agree to a ceasefire – which would involve concessions to Hamas – ultra nationalists in his Knesset coalition, particularly National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, head of the six-seat Otzma Yehudit party, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the seven-seat Mafdal party, would object. If either or both of them withdrew their parties from Netanyahu’s coalition, Netanyahu’s government would fall and new elections would be triggered.
Plesner said Israel’s major security challenge begins and ends in Tehran, Iran’s capital. He said Iran is close to nuclear capability. He said Israel must find a way to forge a coalition with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, and Jordan to counter the threat.
While the United States is an ally, Plesner noted that this country has limited resources. Besides the Middle East, the U.S. is worried about the actions of Russia in Europe, and China in Asia. Plesner said the pro-Western alliance is working in the Middle East, but only on defense.
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Donald H. Harrison is publisher and editor of San Diego Jewish World.