By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — From the looks and sounds of BDS it would seem that Palestine is on the verge of something big.
BDS prevails on a number of campuses, often with Jews as well as Palestinians and others pushing for a boycott. Occasional performers announce that they will not perform here. The police of Vermont and Northampton, Massachusetts have declined to participate in a joint exercise with Israeli equivalents.
And UN bodies continue to keep alive Palestine issues, most recently deciding another half dozen resolutions condemning Israel.
Meanwhile, Palestine itself seems to be in the deep do do.
A tottering leader of the West Bank is holding on, at least between medical treatments, while a number of others are said to be sharpening their weapons in preparation for a take over.
Hamas in Gaza has been struggling to maintain control of protesters, as well as a number of competitors for leadership.
Meanwhile, a number of Muslim countries have approached formal recognition of Israel–beyond Egypt and Jordan. There has been commercial and military linkages for some time, but governments occasionally indicate that formal ties will await a resolution of Palestinian issues.
Previous centers of Palestinian refugees in Syria and Lebanon have disappeared or been downsized.
So it looks from here as if Palestine is on a low flame, somewhere beyond the notice of Arab states with other issues pressing. Perhaps forgotten. Or perhaps waiting until the Palestinians settle on a leadership willing and capable of beginning negotiations from where we are, rather than where we were 50 or 70 years ago.
That may take a long time.
Palestine remains more alive in clusters of American and European protesters, along with governments willing to meet with Palestinian representatives, and sometimes speaking of pursuing an elusive peace.
What’s the future?
As far as we can see, more of the same.
There’s an opportunity to manage domestic services in Gaza and the West Bank, but separately. There’s tense cooperation with Israel on matters of security, far more from the West Bank than from Gaza.
Palestinian officials play their games in foreign capitals, pretending to be representatives of a state that hasn’t quite gotten acceptance.
Israeli officials continue to express support for progress toward a two state solution, but without dealing with boundaries.
Beyond that, it’s impossible to see.
The UN is a long way from acting decisively on the issue.
Campus activists may develop further in the direction that they did with South Africa. However, the Arabs of Israel are going through a process of Israelization. Arab parties aren’t growing in the Israeli setting, and the claimed leaders of Palestine are tottering.
Iran and Hezbollah continue to lead for the sake of Palestine, but only occasionally with the support of Hamas. And generally not with the support of Fatah.
Currently Israel is in a process of exposing and dealing with tunnels created by Hezbollah from Lebanon into northern Israel.
And there are enough other interests among Muslim governments to keep them from the kind of unity apparent long ago.
There are those who support Palestinian demands to end Israeli settlement beyond the 1967 lines, as well as to allow the return of Palestinian refugees to what had been their homes in Israel.
The latter would pretty much wipe out Israel, as well as cause conflict among the three, four, or five generations of claimants for each parcel, assuming it could be identified.
There’s also no shortage of intermediate plans, with various carvings of the disputed territory.
So far it’s not amounted to anything, with the Palestinians hard fast on their demands, and not moving as Israelis have not moved beyond some conversations about land swaps.
With current political line ups among Palestinians, and right wing Israelis seemingly in control of Israel, there hardly seems an opportunity for movement.
But that hasn’t stopped BDS enthusiasts, seeking somehow to undo history in their pursuit of justice.
The rest of us can celebrate Chanukah with some calm.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com