By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — Israeli politics continues with multiple crises.
Not only are there recriminations about the split of the New Right from Jewish Home. Now there is another split, seemingly a surprise while both on the platform, with Avi Gabbay announcing the end of Zionist Union. Tsipi Livni was left with a short comment, that she would speak later, and then left the room.
Currently there are number of actors maneuvering in what could be called the large center of Israeli politics.
Yair Lapid, Tsipi Livni, Avi Gabbay, Moshe Kahlon, Avigdor Lieberman, Ayelet Shaked and Naftaly Bennett, Orly Levy-Abekasis, Benny Gantz, Moshe Aya’alon, and Ehud Barak.
Who will coalesce with whom? Under what heading?
And who is the elephant in the living room producing the splits and maneuvering?
Some say that it is the tall, handsome, and silent Benny Gantz.
Yet it may also be the Prime Minister, currently under a cloud, along with his wife, yet hanging in there and indicating that the process of announcing an indictment and hearings would take too long to be finished by the election. Yet Gideon Sa’ar seems to be gearing up for a primary contest. And although it is far from the free for all apparent for years in Labor, Likud figures must be calculating who could replace their leader.
Likud means united, and the party has so far been relatively quiet about replacing its head.
Yet on the table of the Legal Adviser to the Government are three cases. Each with a mention of bribery, or at least breach of public trust.
One involves gifts in excess of several hundred thousand of dollars.
A second concerns efforts of the Prime Minister to improve his coverage in Yedioth Aharonoth.
The third, and perhaps most daunting, involves a trading of favors with the head of Bezeq, the principal Israeli communications entity.
There are also charges pending against Sara. For one, concerned with her management of the Prime Minister’s residence, there seems to be problems in arranging an admission of criminal behavior and repayment of the alleged debt. Yet another, perhaps more serious, concerns her involvement with the head of Bezeq.
Then there is the behavior of elder son Yair. So far he’s avoided anything more serious than bizarre behavior, including recorded conversations about sex, and postings on Facebook that qualify for the label of extreme.
The nearly dozen of Israelis who are talking about their own parties seem likely to be motivated by the uncertainty at the top. Likud is still polling at about 30 seats, with none of the others outside the range of 4 to 15 seats. There are prospects of more in the case of alignments, but those aren’t sure yet.
Likud’s partners may be something like exist at present. However, one of them, SHAS, the ultra-Orthodox Sephardi party, is polling around the minimum needed for entering the Knesset. And its leader, Ariyeh Deri, is the subject of a police investigation, along with his wife and a brother. Plus there’s a potential split in the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox party due to disputes over a reform in the draft bill, required by the Supreme Court.
And Lieberman plus what remains of Jewish Home don’t seem like obvious winners with an incentive to re-enter a coalition headed by Bibi.
So will we have Labor with Gantz?
Gantz with Lapid?
Livni with someone?
Ay’alon with Gantz?
Shaked and Bennett with Gantz?
Will Gabbay remain head of Labor?
Will Orli Levy-Abekasis join with someone?
Will they all stay separate, acting out their egos, and let Bibi get another win.
If the Legal Adviser to the Government lets him.
And will the cluster of parties described as in the right of center complicate the task of Bibi, or someone else at the top of Likud, to form a government?
Currently there is increasing pressure within Labor for Gabbay to resign, insofar as his dismissal of the alliance with Livni has not done well in the polls.
And Bibi has upped his pressures against what he sees as a combination of media and prosecutors, claiming that prospects of an indictment and hearings cannot interrupt the process of election.
He’s speaking of 18 months as the time from indictment to the end of hearings and the final decision of the prosecutor in the case of political officials.
He’s overlooking the two years plus of investigations, and mounting evidence that there will be indictments. Media and prosecutors are saying that is something the voters should know.
And Bibi has had a major role in deciding on an election in April, knowing the process occurring in the prosecution.
In Bibi’s mind, he can manage his personal problems as well as those of the State.
He currently leads in the polls, but with far less than a majority. And a majority does say that he should resign if faced with an indictment.
If the elephant in our living room isn’t Bibi, it’s hard to say who else it could be.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com