By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — A short while ago we heard that 111 political parties had registered as candidates for the April election.
Most are a motley collection with no chance of passing the lower limit for representation.
Along with some destined for alliance, are some reflecting splits in existing groups.
At the center of the commotion is the Prime Minister, likely to be indicted next month, and sure to be in hearings and then on trial for more than a year. Along with his wife, and maybe his son.
Benny Gantz made a brief comment while meeting with Druze figures–that he was committed to fixing the Nationality Law, which gives priority to Israel’s Jews. That brought forth some stinging remarks from Bibi’s Likud camp, labeling Gantz a leftist and supporting the law as something essential to Israel’s character.
We can currently guess that there’ll be 15 parties that make serious runs for Knesset seats
Likud
Labor
A Joint Arab list
Achmid Tibi’s split from the Joint List
Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid (There is a Future)
Kahlon’s Kulanu
Jewish Home
SHAS (Sephardi ultra-Orthodox)
Tsipi Livni’s Hatnuah (The Movement)
Avigdor Lieberman’s Israel Beitinu (Israel our Home)
United Torah Judaism (Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox)
Meretz
Orli Levy-Abekasis’ Gesher (Bridge)
Gantz’s Hosen Israel (Strength for Israel)
ימין חדש (New Right)
Somewhere in the woods are two former Heads of the IDF, Moshe Ya’alon and Gabi Ashkenazi. Are they running? At the heads of their own parties? Or allied with some other party?
Also in the air is a scandal involving the former head of the lawyers’ association, said to have been involved with bribery, including sexual favors, in exchange for using his support in the selection of judges. The police began with a no news barrier on the details, that was supposed to last for an unusual 30 days. But it crumbled after a short time.
Is this something touching the Prime Minister? Just about everything does.
So far it seems to be separate.
A rest from our concern with the Prime Minister, his wife and older son?.
However, it does touch Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, who was close to the principal doer of nasty things.
And here and there we’re hearing of a Supreme Court ruling that the ultra-Orthodox parties must open themselves to women candidates. So far responded to with mutterings by ultra-Orthodox that many of their voters are women.
Polls are showing that Likud increases its Knesset seats from 30 to 32 or 33, but there are questions as to whether it can form a government. Especially if there is an indictment. Kulanu might disappear, or waver outside of an arrangement with an indicted Bibi,.
Lapid and Gantz together are polling at 28 seats, and might go over a majority with Labor, Gesher, New Right, Kulanu, and Israel Beiteinu.
Whatever? Our future is in the hands of middle ranking and small parties, and how they choose to go.
It might take a month or more after the election to decide.
Meanwhile, there’s a dust-up between the head prosecutor and the Prime Minister. We hear that there is likely to be indictments for bribery as well as violation of trust, and from the PM and his supporters condemnation of the police and prosecution for a failure to investigate truly.
As if a three year process has occurred without serious work, as well as opportunities for the PM to defend himself.
So we are likely to have indictments more than a month before the election, but no opportunity for the hearings to which public figures are entitled.
There’s been a hyped Prime Ministerial trip to Chad, meant to formalize diplomatic relations. As well as the beginning of a public relations campaign designed to sharpen antagonism to any opposition of his re-election.
Which parties will denounce the Prime Minister, and refuse to coalesce with him?
Will that spread to as yet silent or supportive members of Likud?
Will Likud lose support shown until now in the polls?
Across the sea, issues of impeachment in the US are no less uncertain.
There’s enough to charge Trump, and a majority in the House of Representatives to vote impeachment. But Republicans still control the Senate, which complicates the task of getting a two-thirds vote for a guilty verdict.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com